Over the next few years, should oil and gas companies reinvest revenue or continue pursuing profits? In this video clip from "The High Energy Show" on Motley Fool Live, recorded on March 15, Fool.com contributors Travis Hoium and Matt DiLallo discuss the strategy that will likely be followed in the near term.
Travis Hoium: I'm trying to imagine what's happening in these boardrooms. You're going like, "We're making tons of cash. Should we reinvest it in the business?" They go like, "No." Like it's the strange dynamic that we have going on that seems like it's never really happened in the last 100 years in the oil and gas industry. Matt, where are we headed from an investment standpoint? Is it still going to remain muted or are we going to see a surge in investment over the next couple of years?
Matthew DiLallo: I really think that in the near term, companies have just really broadcast to investors that we're going to pay you and we're going to send you these big special dividends. They're finally starting to get investors back in the market. It's really going to be hard for them to shift gears and say, "Hey, I know we promised you these big special dividends, 50%, 75% of our cash flow, but we can't not take advantage of this market."
Then they look at the drillable inventory and be like, "Well, we would destroy our business over the long term." I really think you're going to see that moderation of we'll grow production 5% a year because we can handle that, and you might even see some more consolidation because that way they can get some more drillable land and build up that inventory.
If anything you would see, maybe private companies like private equity-backed companies, they've got their shareholders that they're answering to are private. They're not as picky so much as public market investors. They might be more OK with growth. So you might see some of these E&P companies that are owned by Blackstone (BX -0.49%) start drilling and that might be our way out.
But it really doesn't seem like there's going to be an easy answer. Maybe I'm wrong with this because it's going to be tough to see a $130 oil and not go for it. But they're looking at eight years of pain. I think they and their investors just want to cash in for a while.
Hoium: When you look at the long-term picture, more EVs are being sold over decades. Demand doesn't seem like it's going to increase. So you've got to cash in while the getting is good.