Shares of Novavax (NVAX 8.40%) were plunging for a second consecutive day on Wednesday and were down 14.1% as of 12:24 p.m. ET. Today's downturn is a continuation of a sell-off stemming from investors' worries about sales of Novavax's COVID-19 vaccine.
The company missed Wall Street's estimates with its first-quarter results. It maintained its full-year 2022 revenue guidance of between $4 billion and $5 billion. However, it also noted that Gavi, an alliance focused on distributing COVID vaccines to low- and middle-income countries, is seeking to revise the number of doses ordered and the timing for shipment.
There is a reason for concern about Novavax's ability to meet its 2022 revenue guidance. So far, the company hasn't received any orders from Gavi. Some countries are experiencing a supply glut of vaccine doses. Gavi's desire to change the terms of its deal with Novavax is a reflection of this.
But a good case could be made that Novavax's valuation already has this uncertainty baked into the share price. The vaccine stock trades at less than 1.7 times expected earnings. Its market cap of $3.6 billion is less than the low end of its revenue outlook range.
Investors will obviously want to watch what happens with Gavi. But Novavax could have a positive catalyst before anything happens on that front. The Food and Drug Administration has scheduled an advisory committee meeting for June 7 to review the Emergency Use Authorization filing for the company's COVID-19 vaccine.