Moderna (MRNA -0.58%) waited a long time to reach this important moment: the authorization of its vaccine in infants and children. Initially, the company aimed to win the regulatory nod for use in teens last year. But reports of heart inflammation in some young adults who had received the Moderna vaccine spurred the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) to take more time reviewing the company's submission.
This month, the FDA authorized the vaccine for both teens and children ages six months and older, and vaccine rollout has begun for the youngest group. Could this new authorization be Moderna's ticket to long-term success? Let's find out.
A Pfizer authorization
It's important to note that regulators also authorized rival Pfizer's (PFE 2.40%) vaccine for use in kids six months through age 4 this month. Last year the FDA authorized Pfizer's vaccine for use in older children, so Moderna isn't the only player in this market.
We'll look at the near term first. It's unlikely Moderna will gain much market share in the group of older kids, because parents who wanted to get their children vaccinated have probably already done so. And when a booster is eventually needed, they may opt for Pfizer if they had a good experience with the primary series.
Both companies may be almost on equal footing when it comes to younger kids, though, because they're entering the market at the same time. In fact, Moderna may even have a slight edge: its vaccine is given in two doses to all age groups. Pfizer's vaccine is given in three doses for the youngest age group. This three-dose vaccine produces stronger efficacy in that group -- 80%, versus 37% (kids aged 2 to 5) to 51% (babies and toddlers aged six months to 2 years) for Moderna's vaccine. But parents may not want to go through Pfizer's lengthier process; its three shots are given over an 11-week period. That's compared to a one-month period for the Moderna primary series, which might offer Moderna the opportunity to gain market share.
That's positive. But I don't see the vaccine for these age groups offering a big boost to revenue in the near term. It's true that some parents have been very eager to get their babies and young children vaccinated, but they may not be the majority. Only 1 in 5 parents planned on getting their kids in this age group vaccinated immediately following the authorization, according to a Kaiser Family Foundation survey.
And, in general, children haven't been among the most vulnerable to the coronavirus. So even some healthcare professionals may not push parents to vaccinate their kids.
The long-term picture
I'm more optimistic about the long term, though. Experts predict that SARS-CoV-2 is here to stay. Over time, the coronavirus vaccine may join the list of others that people go for seasonally -- or that most children go for as part of early childhood vaccinations. Even parents who aren't rushing to get their kids vaccinated today may eventually opt for the vaccine in this context.
Still, I don't think kids' vaccines will represent the biggest share of Moderna's revenue. Higher-risk individuals probably will be the primary customers for the vaccine over time, though kids could make up part of the long-term revenue picture. And as children continue to be born and to enter school, this population could provide a steady stream of demand. No, kids' vaccinations won't be the ticket to Moderna's long-term success. But, over time, this market could be one of many tickets.
