Pinterest (PINS -0.52%) is slated to report its second-quarter 2022 results after the market close on Monday, Aug. 1. A conference call with analysts is scheduled for the same day at 5 p.m. ET.
Investors will probably be approaching the visual-based social media company's report with cautious optimism. On the positive side, the company has a good track record of beating Wall Street's earnings expectations. Moreover, it started 2022 on a solid note, with its first-quarter earnings speeding by the Street's expectation, and its revenue slightly surpassing it.
However, investors remain concerned about Pinterest's user metrics, particularly its declining year-over-year user numbers in the U.S. (Last quarter, the company began categorizing the U.S. together with Canada.) This dynamic is being driven by the pandemic, which caused a surge in the number of folks using the company's platform during the earlier, "stay-at-home" stages of the crisis. As people began venturing outside their homes more often, user growth has been under pressure.
In addition, investors are likely feeling uneasy about the potential for a recession in the U.S., which would almost surely cause advertisers to cut back on their ad spending.
The upcoming report will be the first released during the tenure of new CEO Bill Ready. In late June, Ready took the reins from co-founder Ben Silbermann, who transitioned to the role of executive chairman. Ready joined Pinterest from Alphabet's Google, where he led the company's commerce and payments initiatives. His background reflects Pinterest's plan to push big into the e-commerce space.
Here's what to watch in Pinterest's upcoming Q2 report.
Image source: Getty Images.
Pinterest's key numbers
Following are the company's results from Q2 2021, its Q2 2022 guidance, and Wall Street's consensus estimates to use as benchmarks.
| Metric | Q2 2021 Result | Pinterest's Q2 2022 Guidance | Wall Street's Q2 2022 Consensus Estimate | Wall Street's Projected Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $613.2 million | 11% growth | $675.4 million | 10% |
| Adjusted earnings per share (EPS) | $0.25 | N/A | $0.18 | (28%) |
Data sources: Pinterest and Yahoo! Finance. Note: Pinterest doesn't provide earnings guidance.
For context, in the first quarter, Pinterest's revenue grew 18% year over year to $574.9 million. That result edged by the consensus estimate of $573.6 million, and was in line with the company's guidance of growth in the high-teens percentage range. Adjusted net income was $0.10 per share, down 10% from the year-ago period. That result raced by the $0.04 per share analysts had been expecting.
Key metrics
Pinterest's revenue is determined by two metrics: the number of global monthly active users (MAUs) and global average revenue per user (ARPU), which reflects the advertising rates it achieved. Users in developed countries are more valuable to the company than those in developing countries, since they bring in more advertising revenue. So, user numbers in the U.S. + Canada and Europe categories are the ones to focus on.
Here are last quarter's key metrics:
| Metric | Q1 2022 | Change (YOY) |
|---|---|---|
| Monthly active users (MAUs): Global | 433 million | (9%) |
| MAUs: U.S. and Canada | 94 million | (13%) |
| MAUs: Europe | 120 million | (12%) |
| MAUs: Rest of World | 220 million | (6%) |
| Average revenue per user (ARPU): Global | $1.33 | 28% |
| ARPU: U.S. and Canada | $4.98 | 31% |
| ARPU: Europe | $0.72 | 40% |
| ARPU: Rest of World | $0.08 | 164% |
Data source: Pinterest. YOY = year over year.
There is a positive with respect to user numbers that doesn't show on this chart: Last quarter's global MAU count of 433 million came in slightly higher than the prior quarter's 431 million. That result broke the company's three-consecutive-quarter streak of declining sequential global MAUs.
In last quarter's earnings release, Pinterest provided the following user numbers as of April 25, which was 25 days into the second quarter: U.S. and Canada MAUs of 94 million and global MAUs of 432.9 million. Both of these numbers are about flat with the MAUs at the end of the first quarter.
Third-quarter guidance
Pinterest stock is likely to move if management's third-quarter outlook comes in notably different than Wall Street's expectations.
For Q3, analysts are currently modeling for revenue to increase 15% year over year to $728.7 million and adjusted EPS to decline 36% to $0.18.
