What happened
Canada's top-tier marijuana stocks are having a strong session Wednesday. As of 1:29 p.m. ET, Aurora Cannabis (ACB 18.15%) was in the green by 7.4%, Canopy Growth (CGC 15.03%) was up by 11.4%, and Tilray Brands (TLRY 6.98%) was higher by a respectable 3.5%.
What's causing investors to pile into these stocks today? Oddly enough, there haven't been any needle-moving developments in the world of cannabis lately. As a result, the industry seems to be simply going through yet another bear market rally today.
So what
Speaking to this point, Aurora, Canopy, and Tilray have all lost a staggering amount of their value in 2022. Bargain hunters, in turn, might be trying to time the bottom with these beaten-down names today.
The good news is that there is one clear-cut fundamental reason to think that a bottom may, in fact, be close at hand. Germany, which is the largest cannabis market in Europe in terms of sales, is steadily marching toward adult-use legalization for recreational purposes. The political process is still unfolding, but experts believe commercial sales could kick off as soon as 2024.
Aurora and Tilray both have ongoing grow operations in the country, and Canopy Growth has a strong commercial footprint there through its medical cannabis brand Spectrum Therapeutics. German adult-use legalization would thus be a boon for these three companies. The country, after all, has been pegged as a potential annual $16.6 billion market for legalized cannabis. The Canadian legal cannabis market, by contrast, is only expected to hit $12.2 billion in annual sales by 2030.
Now what
Are any of these Canadian pot stocks worth buying right now? My view is that Tilray is the best of the bunch. It arguably has the strongest foothold in Germany following the company's merger with Aphria, and it sports the highest predicted growth profile within its immediate peer group.
Having said that, Tilray is still a speculative growth stock. Global cannabis legalization is unfolding at a snail's pace, which has forced nearly every one of these companies to rely heavily on public offerings (shareholder dilution) to fund their operations.
Tilray, for its part, has been no exception to this industrywide trend. And until more large international markets such as Germany officially open up, the pot company's shareholders will probably have to continue to contend with regular capital raises.
