If Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A 0.46%) (BRK.A 0.46%) CEO Warren Buffett loves anything besides fast food and Coca-Cola, it's a good value.
Occasionally, the Oracle of Omaha will hitch his wagon to a growth stock, but typically he sticks to the tried-and-true blue chips -- and over time, he usually outperforms the younger trend chasers.
So, it makes sense that Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway would own a roughly 20% stake in an old standby, American Express (AXP 1.39%). Indeed, his conviction clearly runs deep, as Berkshire Hathaway recently held over 151 million American Express shares, and he hasn't sold a penny of its stake since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic.
NYSE: AXP
Key Data Points
What's the appeal of this traditional credit card giant? Sure, there's the good old-fashioned value-and-dividends combo that Buffett loves. As the data will show, though, there's also a resiliency to American Express that should appeal to any Buffett-influenced long-term investor.
No recession, says American Express CEO
As Americans struggle through elevated inflation just to make ends meet, American Express CEO Stephen Squeri probably didn't endear himself to the public when he claimed not to see a recession. Granted, Squeri said this a full month before Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell told the nation to expect "higher interest rates, slower growth, and softer labor market conditions," along with "some pain to households and businesses," which in turn could weigh on American Express's bottom line if people aren't in a spending mood in the second half of 2022.
From Squeri's perspective, though -- and even in light of a likely continuation of interest rate hikes -- he had little cause for immediate concern. Indeed, if any financial business has demonstrated that the U.S. consumer remains strong despite high inflation, it's American Express.
Or, as Squeri put it, "We continue to see no significant signs of stress in our consumer base." This isn't empty talk, as American Express posted at least two quarterly records in Q2 that point to consumer resilience: a 31% year-over-year revenue increase to $13.4 billion, easily beating Wall Street's estimate of $12.51 billion, as well as 30% growth in currency-adjusted cardholder spending.
Checking the Buffett boxes
Also in Q2, American Express added 3.2 million new proprietary cards, "driven by continued strong demand for our premium products," Squeri was quick to point out. Moreover, American Express achieved all-time highs in acquisitions of the company's U.S. consumer Platinum, Gold, and Delta co-brand cards.
What's more, the company drove the point home with a 25% increase in total network volumes to $394.8 billion, plus a 48% rise in currency-adjusted millennial and Gen Z card spending. To quote an old song from The Who, "the kids are alright" irrespective of higher consumer prices.
American Express's bottom line seems all right, too, as the company's diluted EPS only declined 8% year over year in Q2. However, only time will tell whether younger cardholders will keep ramping up their spending -- and how resilient American Express will continue to be if the Fed plows ahead with monetary tightening.
Where does all of this fit into Buffett's old-school investment paradigm? Certainly, Buffett and Berkshire have always leaned toward resilient, all-weather businesses, and the data does at least seem to suggest that American Express can withstand some turbulence in the economy.
Besides, American Express stock appears to check the right boxes for a Buffett-style holding. The shares have a reasonable trailing-12-month P/E ratio of 15.2, and the company pays a modest 1.34% forward annual dividend yield.
So even if Buffett isn't particularly vocal about why he bought and held American Express stock, it's not difficult to connect the dots. Even if Squeri's definition of "recession" may be rather narrow and company-specific, at least the data supports his confidence in consumers, and therefore in the cardholders -- and if that's good enough for Buffett, maybe it ought to be good enough for you, too.
