Investors have good reason to be concerned about the stock market. Between the high inflation, the rising interest rates, supply chain snarls, and geopolitical turmoil, it feels as though the economy is taking its theme from the title of a recent surprise-hit movie -- because the problems are Everything Everywhere All at Once.
Even after a rally last week, the S&P 500 is still in a bear market, down 21% year to date, while the Nasdaq Composite is down more than 30%. And as my colleague Sean Williams recently detailed, there's a good chance there's more downside to come.
Image source: Getty Images.
Every time the S&P 500 Shiller price-to-earnings ratio indicator has had a sustained reading above 30, Wall Street has experienced a bear market. The indicator hit that level as we kicked off 2022, and we've all seen the terrible, horrible, no good, year the market has had since then. And share prices could slide even further.
Still, even if you're pessimistic about the market, you should be on the lookout for good businesses to buy. The old investing adage remains true; time in the market is more important than timing the market. Over the 20 years from 2001 through 2021, the stock market had an annualized gain of 9.5%, but if you missed out on just the 10 best days in the market over those two decades, your returns would have been cut nearly in half to 5.3% a year.
That's why I'm always looking for good stocks to buy and hold for the long haul, and these two growth stocks should be good to own for the next 10 years and beyond.
American Express
Despite delivering third-quarter results last week that beat analysts' revenue and earnings estimates, American Express (AXP 0.07%) stock fell because the payment processor hiked its provision for losses well above what Wall Street had been anticipating, suggesting that recessionary pressures are creeping into the echelons of upper-income consumers.
Rising interest rates are impacting the ability of people to pay their bills, and AmEx has been warning that charge-offs would rise as consumers turned to credit cards more extensively to cover their expenses. Yet because it targets higher income individuals than Mastercard and Visa, the credit quality profile of its average user is higher than theirs.
So while its 30-day late payments did tick slightly higher this past quarter, it's doing much better by that metric than its card rivals or banks that tend to serve more affluent customers, such as JPMorgan Chase (which had more late payments and write-offs than AmEx). The credit card giant also says while the increases were expected, charge-offs actually remain much lower than they were before the pandemic.
AmEx has also been adding more new customers -- some 3.3 million in Q3 alone -- and because inflation is still running north of 8%, it's generating more revenue because it takes a small cut of every purchase made with an American Express card.
Walt Disney
It's not often investors are able to buy Walt Disney (DIS 0.18%) stock for around $100 a share, but after losing half its value over the past year and a half -- a fairly rare occurrence in the history of the company -- the market is presenting investors with the opportunity once again.
The entertainment company is still grappling with the fallout of the pandemic, which temporarily closed its theme parks, left its cruise ships in port, shuttered its movie studios, closed movie theaters, locked its retail stores, and shut down major league sports.
Of course, virtually all of those are fully operational again, and throughout the crisis, Disney had one shining star in its portfolio: Disney+, which now has over 152 million subscribers globally and is bearing down on rival Netflix in a chase for the title of biggest streaming service.
Image source: Walt Disney.
Between its Disney+, Hulu, and ESPN+ offerings, Disney was briefly the biggest streaming company after Netflix recorded net subscriber losses in the first half of the year. Netflix regained the crown after adding 2.4 million subscribers this past quarter.
However, the pandemic showed just how interconnected all of Disney's businesses are. A movie may spawn a theme park ride and new toys, and create new experiences throughout all of its properties. Barring another broad economic shutdown, Disney is a fairly recession- and inflation-resistant business, with products that consumers willingly pay up for year after year.
That's one reason why Wall Street analysts estimate Disney's revenue will grow at a 10% compound annual rate over the next five years, and anticipate its net profits will expand at a 44% rate over the same period. This is a growth stock you'll want to own for decades, not just the next 10 years.
