Amazon (AMZN -1.14%) and Etsy (ETSY -0.22%) have more in common than e-commerce these days. The companies share a similar stock performance story. Amazon and Etsy stocks each have dropped more than 45% this year. And they're both trading for just under $100 a share. Today's economic troubles have made some investors think twice before buying stocks linked to consumer spending.
The good news is the current economic woes won't last forever. And stocks that have suffered may not only rebound -- but thrive over the long term. That's likely to be the case for Amazon and Etsy. But which of these two beaten-down stocks is most likely to double first? Let's take a closer look at both and find out.
Amazon's track record
Amazon has a track record of revenue and profit growth into the billions of dollars. The company also grew its free cash flow and return on invested capital over time. Until recently. In the third quarter of last year, the company started to feel the impact of inflation, supply chain issues, and general economic woes. As a result, Amazon's stock lost ground.
Why should we be optimistic about Amazon today? It's important to remember Amazon is a leader in two markets set to grow in the double digits this decade. I'm talking about e-commerce and cloud computing. So, Amazon is well positioned to benefit when today's economic situation improves.
Meanwhile, Amazon Web Services (AWS) continues to increase revenue and operating income in the double digits. Revenue growth slowed to 27% in the third quarter from more than 30% in previous quarters. But that still remains a very attractive growth rate -- especially considering AWS customers are watching their expenses.
At the same time, Amazon's making moves today that should boost earnings down the road. The company is cutting costs -- and even has a plan to strengthen its cost structure.
Amazon also continues to invest in areas that will deliver down the road. For example, it's expanding AWS infrastructure around the world. AWS is a key profit driver, accounting for more than 70% of Amazon's operating income last year.
Today, Amazon shares are trading for less than 2 times sales. This is the stock's lowest by that measure in more than six years.
Etsy's pandemic growth
Etsy saw sales soar during the early days of the pandemic. The e-commerce site offers makers of handmade goods a place to sell their wares -- and buyers a place to shop for them. As people stayed close to home, they favored shopping online. And Etsy benefited.
Today what's difficult for Etsy is beating the strong growth levels of that time. In the third quarter, Etsy marketplace's gross merchandise sales (GMS) fell 3.8% to $2.6 billion year-over-year. But it actually climbed 134% over the same period in 2019. What's impressive is Etsy has maintained the gains it made over the past couple of years.
A lot of the pressure on Etsy's GMS growth in recent times was linked to what the company calls "re-opening headwinds." As coronavirus restrictions have loosened around the world, shoppers found themselves with a broad range of shopping opportunities. So, they shopped less on Etsy.
Importantly, though, Etsy says this situation is stabilizing -- and those headwinds are pretty much a thing of the past.
A second key element for Etsy has to do with those who shop on the platform. Etsy's most active buyers accounted for 46% of GMS in the third quarter. So habitual buyers are contributing a great deal to Etsy's growth. Etsy's also doing well when it comes to gaining new buyers and reactivating ones who strayed.
Finally, Etsy faces fewer challenges related to inflation and supply chain problems than traditional e-commerce players. Etsy itself doesn't store and ship products. Its sellers do. And they're small businesses -- so they aren't as heavily hit by supply chain disruptions, for example, as a company with a lot of inventory to manage.
Etsy is trading at about 5 times sales. That's compared to more than 16 late last year.
So will it be Amazon or Etsy?
Both stocks make great buys at today's levels. They have what it takes to grow revenue and customer numbers over the long term. And that could easily lead to these stocks doubling.
But which one could get there first? Amazon may struggle more than Etsy. Today's economic situation is hitting Amazon hard. Inflation and supply chain disruptions have increased costs. And the problems aren't over. As mentioned above, these issues represent less of a weight for Etsy.
This means Etsy's GMS growth may take off more quickly than Amazon's earnings in the coming quarters. As a result, Etsy's shares may climb more quickly too. Both of these stocks offer exciting opportunities today. But if I had to bet on one doubling first, I'd go for Etsy.
