"Recession" is suddenly a hot topic in the corporate executive suite. Of the 409 companies on the S&P 500 that have reported earnings so far this quarter, the R-word was discussed 165 times, according to data from market data provider Sentieo, a four-fold increase from last year.
And where Apple was essentially the bulwark against a market collapse after reporting relatively strong earnings when all the rest of the tech sector seemed to be imploding, the iPhone maker now says China's zero-tolerance COVID-19 restrictions may cause a shortage of the mobile device because of "significantly reduced capacity" at a primary factory.
The company now expects to produce at least 3 million fewer iPhone 14 models than originally forecast.
Image source: Getty Images.
With the broad market index down in a bear market after losing 20% of its value this year, it's a tempting time to go shopping. Previous high-flyers that you couldn't touch are now much more accessible because they're so much cheaper.
But don't just look at price; if that recession that executives fear becomes a reality, investors may find there is still a lot of air under stock prices of already-marked-down companies.
Instead, look for companies whose businesses you feel confident will command strong earnings growth well into the future. Not just next quarter or next year, mind you, but five years or more down the road. If you can buy them at a good price, then you may have found a winner.
The following pair of stocks seem to fit that mold to a tee.
1. Palantir Technologies
Data analytics firm Palantir Technologies (PLTR 3.19%) just reported third-quarter results that beat top-line analyst estimates but came up just short on adjusted earnings.
Yet it's the outlook for the fourth quarter that is most hopeful, as renewals of government contracts, along with their expansion, helped drive guidance well above Wall Street forecasts. It's a combination that should serve the one-time spy agency analytics shop well going forward.
Trailing-12-month U.S. revenue crossed the $1 billion revenue for the first time ever, a 64% compound annual growth from the same point in 2019 when Palantir generated just $253 million. Yet the data analytics company believes four regional U.S. markets -- the Midwest, Southeast, New England, and Texas -- could all be billion-dollar businesses on their own in the very near future.
Remarkably, though, while government contracts are a growth market for Palantir, its enterprise segment is seeing even faster growth. Because as much as the security state needs to crunch numbers and data at an unprecedented rate globally, businesses have an equal need to process raw data. The number of new customers buying Palantir's artificial intelligence and machine learning software has doubled in the past year, and it now has over 330 total enterprises in its ranks, up 66% year over year and over two-and-a-half times greater than in 2019.
Yet Palantir's stock has fallen 70% from its highs, and at less than $8 a share, it's 56% lower than where it started the year. Wall Street forecasts the data analytics firm can grow earnings at a near-26% compound rate for the next five years, suggesting Palantir Technologies should be on your short list of stocks to buy.
Image source: Getty Images.
2. Adobe
Companies never fail to tout the supposed "synergies" of acquisitions, but the bigger the deal, the more likely those benefits won't materialize. Investors are likely feeling that's the case with Adobe's (ADBE 1.29%) $20 billion purchase of collaborative design specialist Figma, a deal that is already under investigation by the Justice Department.
Adobe, of course, is the leader in photo and video editing. And its creative cloud segment, which represents 60% of its business, wasn't under threat from Figma, but rather it views it as an additive, both in terms of content and revenue.
The price tag seems high -- 50 times Figma's annual recurring revenue -- but Adobe sees a $16.5 billion total addressable market by 2025 as a way to build on its doubling of annual recurring revenue this year, or some $400 million.
Adobe also notes Figma has a net dollar retention, or how much revenue has expanded or contracted over a certain time period, of 150%, what it terms a "best in class" rate.
Figma also has 90% gross margins and positive operating cash flows, while Adobe's own digital media business surpassed $13 billion in annual recurring revenue this quarter, up 16% year over year.
Despite Adobe's dominant creative software presence, the market has dramatically discounted its stock. The company's enterprise value trades at just 19 times its earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA), a valuation it hasn't traded at in nearly a decade. It's the same with its price to free cash flow. It is a bargain stock ready to take off on a long-term run.
