What happened
Tesla (TSLA 1.85%) investors have been having a rough week.
Through close of trading Thursday, shares of the electric car stock leader fell 11% from last week's close, as multiple reports of production slowdowns in Shanghai dinged the stock -- but there's better news for Tesla today. As of 11:20 a.m. ET, Tesla stock is up 4.1%, despite more news of production slowdowns in China.
So what
Monday started off Tesla's week on a down note -- and an argument -- with Bloomberg reporting that December Model Y production in Shanghai would fall 20% in comparison to November levels. Tesla immediately disputed that report. But today, Reuters is reporting that not only will Model Y production be down by 20%, but it will be down by 30%.
Reuters cited an internal memo from Tesla Shanghai calling for Model Y production to shut down entirely for one week, from Dec. 25 through Jan. 1, and suggested it's possible Model 3 production might also slow. No specific reason was given for the late-month suspension of production, but for more than a month now, media reports have pointed to Tesla price cuts in China as indicative of slowing demand -- which would explain why the company might decide to produce fewer cars.
Now what
None of which, you may notice, are very good reasons for Tesla stock to be up 4% today. So what's really going on here, and what should investors be focusing on going forward?
Well, consider: Even assuming all the media reports are correct, and Tesla intends to slow production in one particular week, of one particular month of the year, that doesn't change the fact that over the long term, Tesla is still targeting 1.4 million car deliveries through the end of 2022 (up 45% year over year). It doesn't change Tesla's goal of delivering 2 million cars next year (up another 43% year over year).
At the same time, China is starting to roll back its zero-COVID policies in an attempt to get its economy growing faster -- which would logically imply greater demand for Tesla vehicles in China, as well as potentially easing some of the supply chain problems that slowed Tesla's production earlier this year. All of this makes Tesla's production targets for 2022 and 2023 look increasingly achievable.
On top of all that, at $181 and change, Tesla's share price has fallen back to levels last seen in late 2020. The stock trades for roughly 49 times earnings today, and -- assuming the growth rates noted above are correct -- this implies Tesla shares are approaching a price/earnings-to-growth (PEG) ratio of 1. If the stock reaches that magic number, there's an argument to be made that Tesla stock will have become a true value stock.
Does that explain why investors might be getting more interested in owning Tesla stock today? I think it might.
