I'm a dividend investor, so an out-of-favor stock like Intel (INTC 3.75%), with its historically high yield, is something I'm going to take a look at. The company has some attractive features.
But a deeper dive suggests the risks outweigh the benefits, especially when I compare the chip giant to my investments in International Business Machines (IBM +2.74%) and Texas Instruments (TXN +0.09%). Here are two big reasons why I'm taking a pass on Intel.
1. A high yield on its own isn't enough
The big thing that attracted me to Intel was the stock's current 5.4% dividend yield. That's not only large on an absolute level, but it's also near the highest levels in the company's history, suggesting the stock is relatively cheap today. That combination is easily enough to get me to take a closer look at Intel right now. One warning sign for me here, however, is that the dividend hasn't been increased annually for even 10 consecutive years.
NASDAQ: INTC
Key Data Points
By comparison, IBM has increased its dividend annually for over 25 years. IBM's yield, meanwhile, is an attractive 4.7%. And while the yield isn't near all-time highs, it is still fairly generous, historically speaking.
And there's the fact that IBM has an over 100-year history that includes several major business transformations -- one of which has just recently been completed, with the company's purchase of RedHat. In fact, a long period of declining sales appears to have turned around. While IBM is hardly perfect, it has proven that it can adjust with the times.
One of the reasons why Intel is in the Wall Street doghouse today is that it hasn't actually proven it can do that. When smartphones became more important, it missed the opportunity, and its efforts in autonomous driving haven't been inspiring (it just spun off a piece of Mobileye, which I don't think it would have done if this push into the autonomous driving sector was a huge success). Meanwhile, it has recently fallen behind CPU competitors because it has faced delays with new technology. Change takes time, and it is likely that the company will muddle through, but I'd rather stick with IBM, which has a similar yield and a better business history.
NYSE: IBM
Key Data Points
2. Not enough diversity
On the other side of the coin, looking specifically at chip stocks, Intel has one main product that gets used in two main end markets. Basically, from my simplistic point of view as a non-tech investor, it makes the brains of a computer (the CPU). As mobile devices have become increasingly important, demand for desktop computers has largely waned. Intel appears to have gotten lucky with the server market (basically just a variation on a computer) taking off to supply the data centers that support mobile demand. In some ways, it's a one-trick pony.
Texas Instruments, meanwhile, makes far simpler microchips that get used in thousands of products. To put a number on that, this chipmaker has around 80,000 products that it sells to more than 100,000 customers. The chips it makes are very similar to each other, but that's kind of the point. These are simple commodity chips that are somewhat fungible, making them easier to sell into the market. I believe strongly in diversification for my portfolio, and I tend to favor companies that have diversification in their businesses, too.
NASDAQ: TXN
Key Data Points
Meanwhile, Texas Instruments has increased its dividend annually for 19 consecutive years. And its 2.9% dividend yield is toward the high end of its historical range, suggesting it is relatively cheap. Like Intel, Texas Instruments is focusing on capital investments right now, but the stakes aren't nearly as high. Intel needs to upgrade its tech or risk falling further behind its peers; Texas Instruments is really just trying to prepare ahead of time for the increased demand it sees down the road. That's a much stronger position to be in.
Tech confuses me, but...
I'll happily admit that I'm not a technology genius, but I don't think you need to be to see the bigger picture trends at these three companies. And when you add up the pros and cons, Intel just doesn't seem as attractive as similarly high-yield IBM or Texas Instruments in the chip sphere. I reserve the right to change my mind, but right now, I'm passing on Intel because it doesn't stack up to the other tech names I own.
