After Snap (SNAP 0.65%) stock shed 81% in 2022, and with its full-year earnings report slated for Jan. 31, it might be tempting to embark on a bottom-fishing expedition with the company. After all, value seekers are supposed to buy when there's blood in the streets, right?
The bleeding might not stop anytime soon, though, and it's challenging to identify Snap's value proposition. While analysts don't always get it right, some of Wall Street's experts have lobbed shots against Snap that seem to hit the mark.
After assessing Snap's considerable headwinds in 2023, I'd encourage overeager bulls to snap out of it before they potentially face further losses.
Let's go comparison shopping
Sticking with the theme of searching for value, we can compare Snap with some of its peers to get a feel for whether it's overpriced, underpriced, or somewhere in between. Just because Snap stock is down nearly 80% from its all-time high tdoesn't mean it can't go lower.
NYSE: SNAP
Key Data Points
Some metrics mavens might declare Snap impossible to value since the company has no price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio (because Snap has no earnings, but we'll get to that in a moment). What about other companies that provide platforms to share pictures and short-form videos? It's difficult to determine the P/E ratio of Chinese company ByteDance, which owns TikTok but isn't publicly listed in the U.S.
However, Alphabet, which owns YouTube with its Shorts feature, has a P/E of 18.7. Meanwhile, the P/E of Meta Platforms, which owns Instagram, looks even more down-to-earth at 13.1.
Thus, in a head-to-head-to-head comparison, Alphabet and Meta Platforms look superior to Snap, given they actually have earnings to report and valuation multiples below the broad market average. If you prefer to use price-to-book (P/B) ratios (which I generally like to see below 3, but under 5 can be acceptable sometimes), Alphabet looks so-so at 4.8 while Meta Platforms looks pretty good at 2.9. But Snap comes in the highest at 5.3.
Profitability could remain elusive for years
A number of analysts have pointed out the potholes in the bullish thesis for Snap, including the relentless competition from TikTok, Alphabet, and Meta. JMP Securities analyst Andrew Boone, for example, warned: "Short-form video platforms are taking share of time from Snapchat," while declaring his "preference for Meta (valuation) and Google (search has higher revenue visibility) over Snap."
Thus, even if TikTok is banned in the U.S. someday over security concerns, Snap's other peers could continue to steal potential users, revenue, and watch time. Boone said that "U.S. time spent with Snapchat fell 7% year over year" in the fourth quarter of 2022.
Jefferies analyst James Heaney also took a cautionary tone toward Snap, echoing the intense competition while also pointing to Snap's "recent major personnel changes" as a cause for concern. Heaney said he doesn't expect Snap to turn a profit until 2027, though that's "based on a more recessionary environment."
Even if there's no recession or just a shallow one, it's hard to argue that Snap is heading toward a profitable profile. In 2022's third quarter, it grew revenue 9% and daily active users 19% year over year but still managed to widen its net loss from $72 million in the year-ago quarter to $360 million. Snap has been either unprofitable or barely profitable for the past several years, and unless the company knocks it out of the park with its upcoming earnings report, there's scant reason to expect the story to change materially.
Who knows, maybe Snap will close its profitability gap before 2027. Unless you're willing to gamble your capital on the company beating the enormous odds against it, though, it's wise to choose a social media company with a more established track record and a lower price tag than Snap.
