Let's start with the good news for Walt Disney (DIS 0.92%) shareholders as well as fans of checking out superhero flicks at the local movie theater. After a blowout opening weekend, Marvel's Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania was the top draw for the second week in a row. Disney films have now been responsible for the top draw at domestic multiplexes for 14 of the last 16 weekends. Disney is a juggernaut with its theatrical releases.
The bad news? The latest installment in the Ant-Man franchise experienced a nearly 70% decline in stateside ticket sales compared to its robust opening during the the Presidents Day holiday weekend. The film that topped $100 million in box office receipts a week earlier took in just an estimated $32.2 in admissions this time around.
Feeling antsy
Heroes can turn into antiheroes pretty quickly in the Marvel Cinematic Universe. The Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania premiere turned heads earlier this month, grossing more than either of the franchise's two previous installments. Exhibitors cheered the breakthrough numbers, perhaps starting to believe that reports of the death of the North American multiplex industry had been greatly exaggerated.
Imax would go on to provide the ultimate mic drop moment, pointing out that Quantumania sold more tickets in its debut weekend than the two previous films in the series combined. The narrative has changed a week later. Movies naturally draw fewer fans in the second weekend. Diehard fans want to see a big film first, hoping to avoid spoilers. The problem is that the 69.7% sequential slide in admissions is not normal. It's the largest second-weekend drop for a film based on Disney's Marvel Cinematic Universe. You're now relieved of the crown, Black Widow.
Exclamation points a week ago have turned to question marks. Is the tail now going to be inherently shorter for all new releases? Will anyone not catching a theatrical release early just wait for a desirable film to hit a streaming service a few weeks later -- if it's not there already?
Image source: Getty Images.
It probably doesn't help the bullish narrative that both Imax and Cinemark reported weaker-than-expected bottom-line results for their latest quarters last week. Multiplex operator Cinemark also fell short on the top line.
Let's leave the boo birds on the perch for now. Quantumania wasn't universally loved by critics the way many of the biggest superhero films have been in recent years. Less than half -- 48% -- of professional film reviewers gave the movie a positive review on Rotten Tomatoes. The audience approval rating is a higher 83%, but even that performance pales what some of the more successful blockbusters have accomplished.
Viewers have also learned that the right film can grow a long tail. Another Disney film -- Avatar: The Way of Water -- was recently the highest-grossing movie at U.S. theaters for seven consecutive weeks. A well-received and culturally relevant film will draw an audience for longer than just the first few nights of screenings.
There is still hope for both the movie studios and the companies that sell movie tickets in exchange for a piece of the film revenue. There is still time for a Hollywood ending when it comes to movie theater stocks. A sophomore slump for the prior week's big winner doesn't sink the bullish thesis that the success of Disney's Black Panther and Avatar sequels nailed weeks earlier. Don't read too much into a sharp sequential slide in interest for a movie with mixed reviews. Disney still has a magic touch, and theater chains aren't going away for now.
