Wall Street in general recovered in the eighth trading week of 2023. I thought my "three stocks to avoid" -- Cracker Barrel Old Country Store, LivePerson, and Frontdoor -- were going to lose to the market in the past week. However, averaging a 2.3% decline, one rose 1%, one slipped 8%, and the other was flat, respectively.
The S&P 500 moved 1.9% higher for the week. I was correct. I have been right 47 of the past 72 weeks, or 65% of the time.
Let's turn our attention to the week ahead. I see Cricut (CRCT +1.00%), Stitch Fix (SFIX 1.06%), and Baozun (BZUN +0.41%) as stocks you might want to consider steering clear of this week. Let's go over my near-term concerns with all three investments.
NASDAQ: CRCT
Key Data Points
1. Cricut
If you made a time capsule of 2020, you would want to stock it with the essentials. I'm talking about sourdough starters, KN95 masks, and -- yes, a Cricut machine. The pandemic awakened downtime at home, and with that, folks began exploring their arts and crafts pursuits.
The Cricut electronic cutting machine was a natural winner with its ability to punch patterns into paper, vinyl, greeting card stock, and other flat objects. The platform was already gaining momentum before we had orders to hunker down at home. Revenue rose a respectable 43% in 2019 and exploded to another level in 2020, more than doubling with a 97% pop. The following year's 36% climb wasn't too shabby, but the top-line gains deteriorated as 2021 played out.
Image source: Getty Images.
Last year was a disaster. Revenue declined sharply in each of the first three quarters. Investors are braced for more of the same when the company reports its fourth-quarter results after Tuesday's market close. Analysts are modeling a 38% decline in revenue. They see a small profit, but Cricut has fallen well short of bottom-line expectations in three of the last four quarters.
Wall Street expects a return to revenue and earnings growth in 2023, but that seems like wishful thinking. A crafts platform doesn't just recover once its moment in the sun has passed. If business wasn't growing when the economy was faring better a year ago, why would shoppers make big-ticket purchases now? It doesn't add up.
NASDAQ: LPSN
Key Data Points
2. Stitch Fix
This should be a great time for Stitch Fix, in theory. The former market darling offers stylist-curated outfits by mail, a neat business model coming out of a pandemic and with businesses calling their employees back to work in the office. Why stay on top of fashion trends when the pros at Stitch Fix can prevent you from looking dated and stale?
Unfortunately, consumers aren't flocking to Stitch Fix. Like Cricut, it has fashioned negative revenue growth for the last three quarters, and it's reporting fresh financials this week. Top-line gains have decelerated sharply for six consecutive quarters, and analysts see a widening loss on a 20% year-over-year drop in sales on Tuesday afternoon.
Stitch Fix is expected to stay in the red through at least fiscal 2027. Will the business be viable by then? The cherry on top here is that the stock has almost doubled since bottoming out in December.
The catalyst for the resurgence was largely the announcement in early January that its CEO was being replaced. No offense, but Stitch Fix did the same thing when its founder CEO stepped down two summers ago, and the stock went on to plummet as much as 94% under her replacement. When a new leader is named, they will be the third CEO in the span of three years. Maybe the problem is the business model, not the person in charge.
NASDAQ: FTDR
Key Data Points
3. Baozun
Another stock potentially heading into this week's financial update on weak momentum is Baozun. It has served up four quarters in a row of declining revenue. It has also missed Wall Street profit targets in its last three reports.
It's easy to see why Baozun is in a funk. It helps globally recognized brands get an e-commerce foothold in China, and right now, there are some macro trends gnawing away at that proposition. The geopolitical risks of doing business in the world's most populous country are as risky as they are unsavory at this moment of growing trade tension. China has also been making it harder for capitalism-oriented businesses to stand out in recent years, but there are signs that those restrictions are starting to ease to get the economy rolling again.
Baozun may not even be reporting quarterly results this week. There hasn't been an official announcement from Baozun, but this is the week it has historically put out its fourth-quarter results.
The stock market is always on the move. If you're looking for safe stocks, you aren't likely to find them in Cricut, Stitch Fix, and Baozun this week.
