With talks of a bull market on the way, some investors might be wondering which sectors are worth exploring. Streaming stocks were fruitful during the worst days of the COVID-19 pandemic when people found themselves spending more time at home than they might otherwise have liked. Of course, in the post-pandemic environment, many of those same companies have seen their valuations drop, due in part to high interest rates and a softening of the advertising market.
Despite the challenges, some entertainment companies might still be primed for growth but could also cause investors to pause for thought. One such stock is Comcast (CMCSA 1.24%), a seemingly undervalued company that also has a key asset with an uncertain future and a division that is performing very well. Let's break down what's going on and just how an investor might want to approach its stock.
The Hulu stake
According to Statista, Hulu generated almost $2.5 billion in 2020, making it the most successful ad-supported video-on-demand (AVOD) service operating across North America. The analytics firm projects Hulu will continue to dominate the AVOD space for a while yet, estimating the platform will exceed $5 billion in revenue by the end of 2024. That outpaces its nearest rival, Peacock, which is owned by Comcast subsidiary NBCUniversal.
For Walt Disney (DIS -0.18%), which has a two-thirds stake in Hulu, the success of the AVOD service has been one of the few triumphs the company can point to when talking about its money-losing direct-to-consumer division. However, the remaining third of Hulu is owned by Comcast, and there is ongoing uncertainty about whether the company will rescind its stake in the service or -- perhaps more importantly -- for how much.
In 2019, Comcast agreed to an arrangement that effectively allows Disney to acquire its Hulu shares in January 2024 for at least $27.5 billion. As part of the original deal, Hulu would still carry NBCUniversal content. Of course, four years can be a long time in Hollywood, and a lot has changed since the two companies put ink to paper.
NBCUniversal began pulling shows such as Law & Order, America's Got Talent, and Will & Grace from Hulu in 2022, shifting them over to its Peacock service. More recently, Disney announced it will start running some Hulu programming on its flagship Disney+ platform later this year. Needless to say, both moves could leave many questioning what the value of Comcast's stake might be in early 2024.
In an interview with CNBC earlier this year, Disney CEO Bob Iger noted the company is "really studying the business very, very carefully" before going on to say, "everything is on the table right now."
Iger's Comcast counterpart was more circumspect on the matter. "It's more likely than not," noted Comcast CEO Brian Roberts during an investor conference earlier this month. The executive suggested Walt Disney is most likely to call in the arrangement "in the beginning of next year," positing the final sticker price will exceed the previously earmarked figure.
Theme park wins
While the future of Comcast's Hulu stake remains opaque, the company's theme park division is at least delivering clear results. Its parks unit generated $658 million EBITDA in the first quarter of fiscal 2023, up 46% year over year. Comcast noted most of the growth came from its international parks, which had been helped by the lifting of COVID-19 restrictions around the world.
Additionally, Comcast said it plans to continue investing in parks based on licensed intellectual properties such as Nintendo's (NTDOY -1.24%) Super Mario Bros. and Warner Bros. Discovery's (WBD 1.75%) Harry Potter while also exploiting more of its own bank of characters.
The clock is ticking
The consumer interest in Comcast's parks seemingly bodes well over the long term. The company is demonstrating an ability to monetize characters it doesn't directly own while also exposing park-goers to the properties it does control. However, when it comes to Hulu, this split control is seemingly more fraught with risk -- particularly if Comcast and Disney are unable to come to an agreement early next year.
Investors looking at Comcast might want to hold the company's stock until there is more clarity around the Hulu deal. With approximately seven months on the clock, the CEOs of both Comcast and Disney will still face many more questions about the arrangement.
