Many investors remain worried that a recession could be right around the corner. It could greatly impact companies with economically sensitive cash flows since a downturn could cause their earnings to decline. That might affect their ability to pay dividends.
However, many companies operate relatively recession-resistant businesses. That means their earnings should hold up during a downturn, enabling them to continue paying dividends. Three that stand out to analysts for their expected earnings durability over the next few years are Four Corners Property Trust (FCPT +0.24%), Getty Realty (GTY 0.06%), and Vici Properties (VICI +0.71%). That positions these REITs to maintain (and potentially continue increasing) their high-yielding dividends.
Satisfying yield-hungry investors
Four Corners Property Trust currently offers a 5.2% dividend yield. Analysts expect the REIT to continue to generate more than enough cash flow to cover that payout. According to those polled by FactSet, Four Corners should generate $1.67 per share of adjusted funds from operations (FFO) this year. That's more than enough to cover its $1.36 per share annual dividend outlay. Meanwhile, analysts expect the REIT's adjusted FFO to rise to $1.73 per share next year and $1.81 per share in 2025.
NYSE: FCPT
Key Data Points
Driving that outlook is the underlying stability of the company's existing property portfolio and its ability to continue growing. The REIT owns over 1,000 properties secured by long-term net leases (NNN) or ground leases with high-quality tenants. Those leases supply very stable (and steadily rising) cash flows.
While it has significant exposure to the restaurant industry, its top tenant (at more than 50% of its annualized base rent) is the financially strong Darden Restaurants, which spun off its real estate to create Four Corners several years ago. The company has been steadily diversifying its portfolio into other restaurants (30% of rent) and non-restaurant retail like auto service and medical retail (15% of rent). It expects to continue growing its portfolio, funded with retained cash after paying dividends and its conservative balance sheet. Future deals should help increase its FFO, allowing it to continue growing the dividend (it gave investors a 2.3% raise last November).
Plenty of fuel to grow the dividend
Getty Realty currently pays a $1.72 per share annual dividend, giving it a 4.9% yield at the recent share price. The company can easily cover that payout. Analysts polled by FactSet expect the REIT to generate $2.23 per share of adjusted FFO this year.
NYSE: GTY
Key Data Points
Meanwhile, they see adjusted FFO rising to $2.28 per share next year and $2.41 per share in 2025. Contractual rent growth across its existing properties and new investments drive that view. Getty Realty owns over 1,000 properties (primarily convenience and automotive retail) leased to operators under long-term NNN structures with rental escalations clauses that should grow its rent by about 1.6% per year. In addition, it has a solid balance sheet, giving it the financial flexibility to continue investing in income-producing auto-related real estate. These drivers should enable Getty to keep increasing its dividend (it has grown at a 5.4% compound annual rate since 2015).
A low-risk wager for continued dividend growth
Vici Properties pays a $1.56-per-share dividend, giving it a 4.9% yield at the recent share price. It also generates plenty of cash to cover that high-yielding payout. Analysts polled by FactSet expect the experiential real estate owner to produce $2.13 per share of adjusted FFO this year, which aligns with the high end of the REIT's guidance range.
NYSE: VICI
Key Data Points
Analysts expect the REIT's adjusted FFO to continue rising. They forecast it will generate $2.22 per share in 2024 and $2.32 per share in 2025.
Inflation-driven rent growth is one driver. Half the REIT's net leases contain clauses that escalate rents at the inflation rate. With inflation running hot, rents are rising faster these days. In addition, the REIT continues to expand its portfolio by investing in additional gaming and non-gaming properties. These drivers should continue growing FFO, enabling the REIT to keep raising its dividend. It has boosted its dividend all five years since its formation, including by 8% late last year.
Solid options for income-seeking investors
Four Corners, Getty Realty, and Vici Properties generate stable cash flow backed by long-term net leases. Those contracts typically feature rental escalations clauses, which will help grow their rents over the next few years, even during a recession. In addition, the REITs should be able to continue acquiring income-producing real estate. That should enable them to grow their cash flows, positioning these REITs to keep increasing their dividends. That makes them great options for investors seeking an attractive and rising passive income stream.
