Advance Auto Parts' (AAP 1.03%) first-quarter financials crushed any remaining optimism investors might have had for this company's potential turnaround. Revenue barely increased, and net income shrunk by more than two-thirds.
Making matters worse, management severely downgraded financial guidance for the rest of fiscal 2023. The business also cut its quarterly dividend payout. Unsurprisingly, as of this writing, the stock is down an eye-watering 54% this year.
If you're seriously thinking of buying shares of Advance Auto Parts in hopes of a major bounce-back, I think it's best to reconsider your stance. Furthermore, it's a better idea to take a closer look at this booming auto stock instead.
A much better business
While the struggles for Advance Auto Parts continue, another industry giant, O'Reilly Automotive (ORLY -0.30%), is firing on all cylinders. In this year's first quarter, it increased revenue by 12% to $3.7 billion, with same-store sales rising 11%. O'Reilly also opened 58 net new stores during the three-month period, bringing its total count to over 6,000. These impressive gains continue a long-running track record of stellar growth.
The aftermarket auto parts industry has traditionally been a very lucrative place to invest. The main reason for this is that demand is generally pretty stable, regardless of what the broader economy is doing.
For example, when times are good and consumer confidence is high, people tend to drive more. And this increases the wear and tear on their vehicles, which results in a greater need for things like brakes, motor oil, and batteries.
And in a recessionary period, consumers are less likely to want to buy new cars, instead focusing on extending the usefulness of their existing automobiles. These factors also drive strong demand for O'Reilly's products.
Then there's the long-term trend of cars just getting older. The average age of a car on the road is a record 12.5 years, a number that has slowly gone up over time. The more time a car spends outside of its original warranty, the better it is for a business like O'Reilly to provide the products needed to complete necessary repairs.
O'Reilly Automotive's Q1 operating margin of 19.3% is light years better than the disappointing 2.6% Advance Auto Parts registered. And while the latter just downgraded guidance for the current fiscal year, O'Reilly's leadership team actually increased its estimates for full-year diluted earnings per share. They also expect the company to produce $1.8 billion to $2.1 billion of free cash flow in 2023.
A premium valuation
Over the past three, five, and 10 years, shares of O'Reilly have soared 126%, 243%, and 738%, respectively. These monster gains far outpace what the S&P 500 or the Nasdaq Composite have been able to do. It's strikingly clear that boring businesses, and not just high-flying tech stocks, can make for wonderful investments.
Advance Auto Parts, on the other hand, has seen its stock price fall 49% in the last five years. As a result, it currently trades at a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 10, much less than O'Reilly's P/E multiple of 27.
It might be tempting to scoop up shares of Advance Auto Parts as a value-focused investment opportunity. After all, all it might take for the stock to soar is better-than-expected financial results, something that could be possible given the company's already depressed guidance.
Even with what appears to be an attractive valuation, I believe it's a good idea for investors to pass on Advance Auto Parts without hesitation. Until there is concrete evidence that it is catching up to its peers in the industry in terms of financial results, it's best to stay far away.
But even this seems unlikely. It's hard to pinpoint exact reasons as to why Advance Auto Parts has severely underperformed its industry rivals. The most obvious seem to be subpar financials, as well as inferior inventory management. Because customers need their parts urgently to get their cars working again, time is a key deciding factor on where to shop. Without adequate product assortment, Advance Auto Parts will keep lagging competitors.
This just means that it might be worth paying a premium valuation for what is an outstanding business in O'Reilly Automotive. Its performance over time speaks for itself.