MercadoLibre (MELI 3.09%) has been an outlier lately in the e-commerce industry as it consistently delivers outstanding results despite the headwinds brought on by global economies reopening. In contrast, other e-commerce companies like Amazon and Etsy have encountered varying degrees of challenges.
The stock price has similarly outperformed, surging nearly 50% year to date. Strong business performance and share price gains are naturally enticing to investors, but the question remains: Is now an opportune time to buy the stock?
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A quick overview of MercadoLibre's recent performance
While MercadoLibre has often been dubbed the "Amazon of Latin America", it has surpassed Amazon as a growth stock over the last five years. Amazon investors may balk at such a claim, but the numbers prove it. Between 2017 and 2022, MercadoLibre expanded its revenue a remarkable 654%, far outpacing Amazon's revenue growth of 189% during the same period.
MercadoLibre's robust performance extended into 2023 with 33% revenue growth in the first half of the year (and more than 55% on a currency-neutral basis). Moreover, the company has consistently grown its operating income recently, doubling it from $389 million to $898 million over the same period.
This strong performance can be attributed to improvements in key operational metrics. In the second quarter, MercadoLibre experienced a surge of more than 47% in gross merchandise value, driven by a 17% increase in marketplace buyers and higher spending per user. Similarly, the fintech segment reported total payment value up 97%, thanks to a 19% increase in wallet payers and heightened average usage per payer.
While macroeconomic factors, such as the increasing penetration of e-commerce and fintech in Latin America, have likely played a role in the company's performance, it's crucial not to underestimate management's strong execution as well.
What lies ahead for the e-commerce company?
MercadoLibre might have a remarkable track record, yet its future remains equally bright (if not better).
The burgeoning growth of e-commerce across Latin America still presents a promising avenue for expansion. With its leading market position and user-centric culture, MercadoLibre is well-equipped to capitalize on this trend.
Similarly, MercadoPago, the company's fintech arm, holds substantial growth potential as digital payments and financial services gain traction in the region. To illustrate the scale of this opportunity, fintech's unique active users reached 45.3 million in Q2 2023, just a fraction of Latin America's population of 650 million. To fully harness this potential, MercadoLibre can leverage its extensive e-commerce user base, grow its array of financial services, and expand its reach into previously underserved user segments.
So, is MercadoLibre stock a buy?
The stock trades at price-to-sales (P/S) and price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 5 and 81, respectively. While those metrics are currently much lower than their respective five-year averages of 12 and 693, MercadoLibre stock still carries a hefty premium
But for the bulls convinced of the company's prospects, such a premium may not be unreasonable if you consider its high growth rate. For example, its valuation shrinks to a more reasonable 46 times earnings based on forward estimates, highlighting how the outlook for strong earnings growth can quickly bring down that multiple, so long as the company can sustain its growth trajectory.
Given the level of optimism already baked into the stock -- and the resulting price tag -- only those bullish on MercadoLibre's long-term prospects who are willing to hold the stock for at least five years should buy in. Others may exercise patience and await a more favorable entry point.
