On October 13, Pfizer (PFE 1.10%) served up a platter of bad news for investors. Aside from lowering its estimates for sales of its jab and its antiviral pill for COVID, the company reported that it'd be launching a cost-realignment program that will see significant layoffs over the coming months. Thanks to the worse-than-anticipated performance of its coronavirus-targeted products, Paxlovid and Comirnaty, its annual earnings will also take a significant hit relative to expectations.
But is the stock still worth buying in light of these developments? Hashing out the details and management's grand plan for the company's future will help clarify the issue.
NYSE: PFE
Key Data Points
The near term could be marginally rockier
Pfizer didn't specify how many people it was laying off or from which business units. But it did say that the cost-cutting campaign would set it back about $3 billion in cash to pay for severance fees, among other charges, and that it'd save around $3.5 billion annually as a result. Of those savings, $1 billion will be realized before the end of this year, with the rest slated for 2024.
In the grand scheme of things, shaving a few billion off its personnel costs is a positive move for shareholders and potential stock buyers if not for employees. In 2022, its total operating expenses were nearly $29 billion. So the cost savings will be meaningful for the bottom line. The catch is that the issue necessitating the layoffs -- rapidly declining interest in its coronavirus vaccine and its antiviral pill -- is probably not going to improve anytime soon.
At the start of the year, management penciled the lower boundary for its top line at $67 billion. Now, it figures it could bring in as little as $58 billion on account of slowing vaccination campaigns and falling case counts. Everyone saw the decline of Comirnaty and Paxlovid coming, but it appears to have occurred even faster than expected. The trouble with that is management was already counting on its revenue to shrink to reach approximately $52 billion by 2025, thanks in part to competition from generics.
Now, it's realistic that revenue could drop that low, perhaps even lower, in 2024, a year ahead of schedule. In other words, more pain for shareholders is likely on the way and soon. And despite a few new products slated to hit the market in 2024, there is no chance any of them will be earning tens of billions of dollars within a couple of years like Comirnaty and Paxlovid each did.
The big picture isn't changing
Regardless of the above, Pfizer's long term looks as strong as ever. It's still pursuing a plan to increase its base of revenue to reach around $84 billion by 2030 by advancing its research and development (R&D) efforts while acquiring valuable pharmaceutical assets and commercializing them along the way.
Layoffs don't detract from that plan, and the additional financial flexibility they afford will likely come in handy. It has nearly $45 billion in cash, equivalents, and short-term investments, and its profit margin is still strong, so it wasn't exactly light on flexibility before, either. Furthermore, its stock is currently valued at what may be generational lows, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of just 8.7. For reference, in early 2021, when its coronavirus earnings were surging, its P/E was above 29, and in mid-2019, before the pandemic, its P/E was near 22.
The market is taking a short-sighted view of the company's potential to grow over time because of how dim the next year or two look right now. Enterprising (and patient) investors can take advantage by buying the stock today and waiting a handful of years for the new growth to come online, which will likely see its valuation multiple expand once again.
And when it comes to pharmaceutical management with a proven track record for accomplishing what it sets out to do, Pfizer's team is near the top of the list, as shown by its stunning success with developing solutions to the coronavirus. That means in the long-term the chances of its strategic plan working out as advertised today are probably quite high.
So if you were thinking about buying a few shares, don't let this latest news get in your way. This business has a long future ahead, and now's a great time to start capturing some of the value it generates every quarter.
