The stock keeps trailing the market, but Coca-Cola's (KO -1.13%) business is just not slowing down. The beverage giant recently raised its 2023 outlook for the second consecutive quarter. Profit remains strong even as consumer spending patterns shift, and market share is rising despite Coke's already dominant position in the on-the-go beverage niche.
Investing is about the future, though, and that's what Wall Street is concerned about. Many traditional soda products are losing traction in the market, clouding the long-term growth outlook. Slowing spending and inflation trends might make it harder to boost sales in 2024 as well. Against that mixed backdrop, let's look at whether the stock remains a good buy option for patient investors.
Growing sales volumes
If you were worried about Coke's growth potential in a tough selling environment, this earnings report should ease those concerns. Organic sales were up 11% overall, on par with the prior quarter's expansion rate. But the good news is that this growth came from a mix of rising prices and higher sales volumes. Last quarter, in contrast, Coke relied entirely on price hikes as volume was flat. "We delivered an overall solid quarter," CEO James Quincey said in a late-October press release.
Coke gained market share thanks to a solid performance in its core beverage brands, including Coke Zero, Sprite, and Fanta. Faster growth came from those non-traditional drinks that are more popular with consumers, including bottled waters, sports drinks, and energy drinks. Coke needs to keep winning in both these areas if it's going to maintain its positive momentum over the long term.
Finances are sparkling
Coke improved on its already stellar profit margin this quarter, and cash flow remained ample. These wins are good news for investors in the short term, as they mean management can invest aggressively in growth areas like marketing. But they also point to more cash returns ahead in 2024 and beyond.
Coke raised its dividend by 5% this year after earnings expanded by 7% in fiscal 2022. Management's latest outlook predicts that profits will rise at a slightly faster pace this year of between 7% and 8%. Thus, investors might reasonably expect a bigger dividend increase in early 2024 for Coke's 62nd consecutive annual payout boost. Count that increase as a bonus that might serve to protect returns in a recession or amplify them through the next cyclical expansion.
Why buy the stock
Risks to buying Coke's stock today include the potential for a recession in 2024. The company could see its market share position eroded over time, too, if it can't keep up with shifting consumer preferences.
But Coca-Cola has a long track record of making these types of adjustments when tastes change. And the business has ample resources available to fund even a substantial strategic shift if needed over the next few years.
In the meantime, picking up the stock at a discount reduces the risk that you're overpaying for potentially weak operating results ahead. And, with a yield sitting over 3%, Coke stock has several ways it can deliver market-beating returns for patient investors.