Shares of Vietnamese electric vehicle (EV) maker VinFast Auto (VFS 1.40%) are on fire this week. The stock ended the week 21.3% higher as the market closed on the holiday-shortened trading week, according to data provided by S&P Global Market Intelligence. Earlier this week, a widely followed analyst in the EV sector shocked investors with a buy rating and the prediction of huge upside for the EV start-up.

One analyst predicted the stock could double

On Tuesday, Wedbush analyst Dan Ives initiated coverage of VinFast, giving it a buy rating and a $12-per-share price target. That represented more than a double in the stock at the time and would still mean a gain of over 80%, even after the stock's jump this week.

The new analyst rating comes after VinFast shares have had a turbulent debut on the public markets. The stock peaked at about $82 per share after it went public in August. But Ives thinks the company's valuation has dropped too far since then.

Ives wrote, "We have seen the impressive VinFast operations in Vietnam firsthand and came away extremely impressed with its EV footprint," shares Barron's. He thinks revenue will soar from about $1.4 billion this year to $5.5 billion in 2025.

Put it into perspective

The analyst's estimate would put VinFast's valuation at a market cap of about $25 billion. Looking at that from the perspective of another EV start-up, Rivian is currently valued at about $15 billion. Rivian, though, expects to produce more than 50,000 EVs this year. In the third quarter alone, Rivian generated nearly $1.4 billion in revenue. That compares to less than $350 million for VinFast in its third quarter.

Both companies have plans to construct new manufacturing plants in the U.S. in the coming years. Rivian expects to break ground on a new factory in Georgia early next year, and VinFast has begun construction on a $4 billion plant in North Carolina.

Aggressive investors would have to feel like VinFast will move forward without glitches and even include some positive surprises to buy the stock. But if Ives is right, it would make for some solid returns. Just don't count on it.