Virgin Galactic Holdings (SPCE +11.35%) is in a tough industry. It is, literally, rocket science.
This week, company investors got a reminder of how the complexity can benefit, and hurt, Virgin Galactic, and the stock rocketed up and down as a result. Shares closed out the week down 4.6%, according to data provided by S&P Global Market Intelligence, and could have trouble getting airborne from here.
Space is hard
Virgin Galactic is in the business of shuttling tourists into space. The company is finally flying commercial missions after years of delay but has not scaled up to a point where it is anything close to profitable. Meanwhile, rivals with their own competing services have gained ground.
The week began with a pop for Virgin Galactic shares after one of those rivals, SpaceX, suffered a failed test flight over the weekend. Bad news for SpaceX could be read as good news for Virgin Galactic as SpaceX would like to eventually enter the space tourism market.
The lift was short-lived, however, because Virgin Galactic's own issues appear worse than what SpaceX is facing. The company was downgraded to underweight by Morgan Stanley, and its price target was slashed.
Virgin Galactic has warned that it expects to scale back commercial flights heading into 2024 to focus its dwindling resources on its new Delta space vehicle. With the Delta not expected to take flight for revenue service until 2026, that means a long period without any obvious catalyst for the stock.
At its low, shares were off by 13% for the week.
NYSE: SPCE
Key Data Points
Is Virgin Galactic stock a buy after a rough week?
The good news is that Virgin Galactic believes it has the cash it needs to bring the Delta to market. And with the stock down more than 90% from its all-time highs, the glum outlook is arguably priced in.
Still, there is a lot of risk in buying in now. As Morgan Stanley's Kristine Liwag notes in the downgrade, at best we are entering a period heavy on research and development and light on revenue. At worst, something will go wrong that delays the Delta timetable, and Virgin Galactic could face a cash crunch.
Investors need to remember that space stocks are speculative investments even in the best of times. Given the risks, and the long wait for a potential payout, there isn't much reason to put new capital to work in Virgin Galactic stock right now.
