ExxonMobil (XOM 1.57%) currently makes most of its money producing carbon-spewing fossil fuels. However, that could change by the end of this decade.
The oil company continues ramping up spending on projects to reduce emissions and build out several lower-emissions businesses. These investments could start paying off by 2030. Here's a look at ExxonMobil's lower-carbon strategy, which could create a lot of value for shareholders in the coming years.
NYSE: XOM
Key Data Points
Boosting its lower-carbon bet
ExxonMobil recently provided an update to its corporate plan. A key aspect of its strategy is reducing emissions (both those it produces and from its customers). The oil giant now plans to invest more than $20 billion in lower-emissions opportunities. That's a $3 billion increase from last year and the third time the company has increased its lower-carbon spending plan since launching the strategy three years ago.
The company is spreading this investment across several opportunities. About half the capital will go toward reducing its corporate emissions as it aims to reach net zero emissions from its Permian Basin assets by 2030. It's also accelerating Pioneer Natural Resources' time frame to achieve net zero in the region by 15 years to 2035. Exxon also aims to reduce its global methane emissions by 70%-80% by 2030 while striving to reach net zero emissions for its global operations by 2050.
In addition to cutting its own emissions, Exxon is building several businesses to help reduce third-party emissions. It's investing the other half of its capital into emerging lower-carbon technologies like lithium, hydrogen, biofuels, and carbon capture and storage.
The company estimates these businesses could reduce global emissions by more than 50 million metric tons annually by 2030. That's equivalent to replacing 17.5 million gas-powered cars with electric vehicles (EVs).
Good for the environment and shareholders
Exxon is a very disciplined investor. It's not spending all this money to be a good corporate citizen -- it's investing this capital because it believes it can earn a strong return. The company estimates that its investments to build out lower-carbon solutions will generate returns of around 15%.
While that's lower than the returns it can earn from its oil and gas business (about 30%), that's still a solid return. Meanwhile, some projects will achieve even higher returns. (Exxon has a dozen biofuel projects under development that should deliver returns of more than 20%.)
The energy giant has made a lot of progress on its lower-carbon energy strategy over the past year. It enhanced its carbon capture and storage capabilities by acquiring Denbury Resources in a $4.9 billion deal. That acquisition provided the company with the country's largest carbon dioxide pipeline network.
Exxon believes that providing carbon capture and storage solutions could become a multibillion-dollar annual revenue stream for the company. Further, this income would be very stable since it would come from long-term contracts, which would help mute some of the volatility of its oil and gas businesses.
The company also unveiled plans to become a leading lithium producer by 2030. Exxon acquired land in Arkansas that holds significant lithium deposits and plans to start producing the key mineral for EV batteries from the state by 2027. It's also evaluating other lithium opportunities around the world. By 2030, the company hopes to produce enough lithium to supply the needs of 1 million EVs per year.
Adding multiple new fuel sources
Exxon continues to ramp up its investments in lower-carbon solutions by adding another $3 billion to its plan. This strategy could pay off in the coming years by enabling the company to build out several lower-carbon businesses that generate solid returns.
Those platforms could become more meaningful growth drivers in the future. That enhances Exxon's long-term investment thesis by putting the oil company in a better position to thrive in a lower-carbon world.
