EQT Corp. (EQT 0.49%) has quietly delivered market-smashing total returns over the last five years. The natural gas giant has doubled in value since 2018, easily outpacing the roughly 66% return for the S&P 500 (14.6% annualized versus 10.6% annualized). Add in its dividend, and its total return is even higher.
The natural gas stock should have plenty of fuel to continue rising over the next several years. However, most investors are completely unaware of the company's value-creating potential because natural gas just isn't a hot commodity like oil or renewable energy. Here's why you'll want to take a closer look at EQT, especially if you want a fast-rising dividend.
A change at the top
EQT became the country's largest natural gas producer in 2017 when it acquired Rice Energy. The $6.7 billion deal combined two leading players in the gas-rich Marcellus and Utica shales of the Appalachian Basin. The company expected the transformational merger to create significant shareholder value by turning it into a free cash flow machine.
That didn't happen initially. This underperformance led Toby Rice (a former executive at Rice Energy) to launch a proxy campaign to wrestle control of EQT from its board and management team in late 2018. Shareholders elected the Rice-supported board in 2019, which installed Toby as the CEO. He has since been on a mission to help EQT realize the full potential of its world-class natural gas assets.
Focused on creating a cash-producing behemoth
Under Rice's control, EQT has focused on increasing its scale to reduce costs so that it can produce more free cash flow. The company has made several scale-enhancing acquisitions to enhance margins and free cash flow.
In late 2020, the company acquired Chevron's upstream and midstream assets in the Appalachian Basin for $735 million. It expected the assets' favorable cost structure to improve its margins and boost free cash flow. It followed that up the following year with its transformative transaction of Alta Resource Development. The nearly $3 billion deal extended its operations into the Northern Marcellus while boosting its free cash flow. Finally, EQT recently closed its strategic acquisitions of Tug Hill and Xcl Midstream. It paid $5.2 billion for assets that should reduce production costs and grow its free cash flow.
EQT has also leveraged its growing scale to sign midstream deals that should help it maximize the value of the gas it produces. It recently signed two of the largest firm sales agreements in the history of the natural gas market to ship gas on the Mountain Valley Pipeline, locking in premium pricing in high-demand markets. It also signed an agreement to export gas from Commonwealth LNG to reach lucrative export markets.
Becoming a free cash flow growth machine
Under Toby Rice's leadership, EQT has started to become the free cash flow machine initially envisioned in the Rice Energy merger. The company has produced $642 million in free cash flow through the first nine months of this year.
EQT's improving free cash flow has enabled it to start returning money to shareholders. It initiated a dividend in late 2021. The company has since increased its payment by 25% overall (20% in 2022 and 5% this year). EQT has also doubled its share repurchase program to $2 billion (which still has $1.4 billion remaining). On top of that, it has been strengthening its balance sheet by retiring debt, including $1.9 billion so far this year.
However, the company is only scratching the surface of its free cash flow potential. EQT believes it can produce $14 billion in cumulative free cash flow through 2028 at the current projected price for natural gas. That's about 60% of the company's current enterprise value. It would give EQT more money to grow its dividend (which currently yields 1.7%, slightly above the S&P 500's 1.5% dividend yield), repurchase shares, and further strengthen its balance sheet. That combination of growing cash returns and balance sheet improvement could enable EQT to produce strong total returns in the coming years.
Lots of fuel left to continue rising
EQT stock has quietly doubled over the past five years. Most investors have yet to discover the company, which Toby Rice and his team have transformed into a free cash flow growth machine. It's on track to produce $14 billion in free cash over the next four years, most of which it will likely return to shareholders via dividends and buybacks. That could give it the fuel to continue producing strong total returns. And that means you haven't missed out on the gas giant, which still looks like a good buy right now.
