Walt Disney (DIS +7.60%) is getting ready to defend its life on several fronts. It's no longer just Nelson Peltz from Trian Fund Management throwing stones at the House of Mouse. At least three other activists are setting the stage for a proxy battle ahead of the media giant's upcoming annual shareholder meeting.
It's not a surprise that Disney is in the crosshairs. The stock has fallen well short of the market in each of the last three years, shedding more than half of its value since its early 2021 peak. The return of a popular CEO halfway through the slump hasn't helped turn the bearish sentiment around. It doesn't mean that things will get messy, even if the hourglass sand is starting to thin out heading into the springtime showdown.
NYSE: DIS
Key Data Points
It's a leap of faith
Disney is generating record revenue right now, but it doesn't mean that it's at its best. Profitability is well below its fiscal 2018 peak. It's struggling to grow its flagship media networks and iconic studios businesses. Its ascending streaming business is drawn to red like a bull.
The good news for Disney is that the catalysts are there for all to see. After failing to crank out one of last year's top theatrical releases, Disney has at least three films on the slate that could break its drought of putting out a film topping $1 billion in global box office receipts. CEO Bob Iger continues to expect Disney+ to turn profitable by the end of this fiscal year. Cord-cutting will continue to weigh on the growth prospects of its media networks segment, but a steady economy and the resolution of last year's content-related strikes will be fertile soil for a recovery in the TV advertising market.
The bad news is that none of these potentially bullish catalysts will be resolved in time for the annual shareholder meeting. A date hasn't been announced, but with Disney's fiscal 2023 year ending in September the event has typically happened in March or April. Disney has just one more earnings report to fire off in the chamber. It's all "trust me" after that.
When you wish upon a star
Disney is going on the offensive. It's probably not a coincidence that it just resumed its dividend distributions, signaling that it's ready to party like it's 2019. When it delivers its fiscal first-quarter results next month it should show another period of strength at its theme parks and improving results for its streaming business.
Don't underestimate the power of Iger to sell the recovery to his shareholders, and not just because the board extended his contract by another two years this past summer. Former helmsman Bob Chapek was also extended by the boardroom before being let go a few months later. The difference here is that Iger was successful in his previous tenure as Disney CEO.
Iger will listen to what the activists have to say. He may even agree to some of the suggestions that don't involve upending his board with new activist faces. Disney is an entertainment behemoth with so many moving parts, and institutional and retail investors alike may side with the stability they know in Iger and his vision for near-term improvement. Investors will probably wind up winning no matter who comes out on top.
