Lemonade (LMND 1.64%) gave shareholders more reason to be pessimistic when it reported its fourth-quarter 2023 financial results a couple of weeks ago. As of March 14, shares have dipped almost 25% since that announcement and are currently sitting 91% below their all-time high.
There are valid reasons to be both bullish and bearish on this business. It all depends on the factors that matter most in your analysis.
Should investors buy, sell, or hold this fintech stock?
Lemonade's story
It's a good idea to first peek at the latest data from Lemonade. It's clear that despite ongoing macroeconomic uncertainty, this business continues to post strong growth.
In-force premiums, which measure the number of active policies the company handles, increased 20% year over year to $747 million, driven by a 12% jump in customers. These growth rates have slowed, but Lemonade is much larger now than it was just three years ago.
This tells me that the company's tech-enabled insurance products are catching on with consumers. By utilizing artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning capabilities, Lemonade aims to disrupt the industry. It offers homeowners, renters, car, life, and pet insurance without physical branches or sales agents, resulting in a fast and user-friendly experience.
The added bonus is that these tools should improve over time, leading to even better-priced policies and risk management. And because it's relying on a direct-to-consumer model, Lemonade should scale up in a profitable manner.
Easy to be pessimistic
Despite these positive traits, there's a reason investors sold off the stock after Lemonade's Q4 financial update. One factor was the commentary around the gross loss ratio.
This number came in at 77% last quarter, which was a huge improvement from just three months ago. And it's on the cusp of management's goal of getting to 75%. That's something to cheer about.
However, there's still work to be done. "We want to caution that we expect continued bumpiness on our way, and that we may have not seen the last of the 80s quite yet," the Q4 2023 shareholder letter reads. The culprit is the significant seasonality in quarterly metrics, due mainly to changes in weather-related incidents.
In other words, Lemonade and its shareholders don't deserve to take a victory lap just yet. It could be quite some time until the business reports a gross loss ratio consistently below 75%. At least the leadership team is being transparent and managing expectations.
Lemonade reported a net loss of $237 million in 2023. That loss ratio will likely rise, and analysts forecast higher spending on marketing efforts for 2024. This could mean positive earnings are a long way off.
Investors looking for profits should consider other alternatives. This could be too risky of a company for some people to add to their portfolios.
The investing perspective
There are compelling reasons to sell or avoid this stock. Lemonade deserves credit for innovating in an outdated industry but still has lots of work ahead to prove that its business model works in a financially sustainable manner. This could be years away. Perhaps the recent price action signals that investors are losing patience.
On the other hand, I can understand why investors who are willing and able to take on more risk would be enticed by the beaten-down valuation and disruptive potential of Lemonade. At the end of the day, whether or not this stock makes it into your portfolio depends entirely on the factors that matter most to you. I think the negative traits hold more weight, so I'm staying away for now.
