The artificial intelligence (AI) craze has powered the stock market higher this year, and few companies have benefited from that more than Nvidia (NVDA 0.87%). In the months since ChatGPT launched in November 2022, eliciting a tidal wave of demand for AI-capable hardware, the chipmaker's share price has surged by 800%
Nvidia was the best-performing stock in the S&P 500 in 2023, and it could deliver a repeat performance in 2024. It is once again leading the S&P 500, and its gains year-to-date exceed those of second-place Vistra by 34 percentage points.
Nvidia announced a 10-for-1 stock split in May and completed it in June to "make stock ownership more accessible for employees and investors." But based on historical patterns, Nvidia shares could decline in the coming months.
NASDAQ: NVDA
Key Data Points
Historically, stock-split stocks have outperformed the S&P 500
Stocks that split typically outperform the S&P 500, at least temporarily. Since 2010, such companies' shares have appreciated by 18% on average during the 12-month period after their stock split announcements, according to Bank of America. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 returned an average of 13% annually during the same period.
We can apply that information to Nvidia to speculate about its future performance. Specifically, its shares have advanced by 30% since Nvidia announced in May that a stock split was coming. So based on the broad averages, that leaves it with implied downside of 12% through May 2025. However, the outlook is considerably worse if we use company-specific data.
Historically, Nvidia shares have performed poorly following stock splits
Prior to the most recent one, Nvidia conducted five stock splits since it went public at $12 per share on Jan. 22, 1999. Generally speaking, those events were bad news for shareholders in the short term, as detailed in the table below.
|
Stock Split Date |
12-Month Return |
24-Month Return |
|---|---|---|
|
June 2000 |
28% |
(52%) |
|
September 2001 |
(72%) |
(49%) |
|
April 2006 |
1% |
(6%) |
|
September 2007 |
(70%) |
(53%) |
|
July 2021 |
(4%) |
145% |
|
Average |
(23%) |
(3%) |
Data source: YCharts.
Nvidia shares have declined by an average of 23% during the 12-month periods following past stock splits, and shares were still down by 3% on average 24 months after.
The chipmaker completed its most recent split after the market closed on June 7, and shares began trading at a split-adjusted price of $120.37 on June 10. The stock has returned 2% since then, leaving it with an implied downside of 25% through June 2025, and implied downside of 5% through June 2026.
Past performance is never a guarantee of future results, but investors should be especially cautious about extrapolating historical data in this situation. I say that because most of Nvidia's past stock splits took place within 12 months of a recession, and all of them took place within 24 months of a recession. Few stocks generate positive returns during economic downturns.
Nvidia's second-quarter earnings release will be a high-stakes event
Nvidia is best known for its graphics processing units (GPUs), powerful chips that can perform many types of calculations faster and more efficiently than central processing units (CPUs). GPUs are particularly well suited to computing tasks like rendering graphics, training machine learning models, and running artificial intelligence (AI) applications.
Nvidia dominates those markets. According to a study by the analysts at TechInsights, it accounted for 98% of data center GPU shipments last year, and its market share in AI processors ranges from 70% to 95%, according to analysts. But the company is truly formidable because it offers a full-stack computing platform that spans hardware, software, and services. That makes Nvidia a one-stop shop for AI.
It reported excellent financial results in its fiscal 2025 first quarter (which ended April 28). Revenue increased 262% year over year to $26 billion amid unprecedented demand for generative AI chips and networking hardware. Meanwhile, non-GAAP earnings surged by 461% to $6.12 per diluted share. Those numbers soundly beat Wall Street's estimates.
The company will report second-quarter results on Aug. 28, and Wall Street's expectations are sky-high. Analysts anticipate revenue and non-GAAP earnings increases of 112% and 137%, respectively. That would make Q2 its fifth consecutive quarter of triple-digit percentage growth on the top and bottom lines. Additionally, management will likely address rumors that shipments of its next-generation Blackwell GPUs will be delayed.
The combination of elevated expectations and uncertainty surrounding the Blackwell GPUs means the upcoming earnings release will be a high-stakes event for Nvidia shareholders. Indeed, options pricing data implies 11% price action, meaning that data suggests the share price could increase or decrease by that much in the trading session that follows the report.
That puts investors in a tricky position. Would they be smarter to buy shares now and risk losses, or buy shares later and risk missing gains? The most prudent course of action would be to split the difference. Investors interested in adding Nvidia shares to their portfolios can buy a small position today, provided they are comfortable with volatility. Then, if shares decline substantially post-earnings, they can consider adding to their position.
