Don't be surprised if there's a big year-end rally in the crypto market. As soon as the presidential election results are known in November, it could mark the signal for investors to load up on risk assets again.
During the past 30 days, some top cryptocurrencies have been soaring, and this momentum could continue over the final two months of 2024. Two cryptocurrencies on my radar right now are Bitcoin (BTC +0.42%) and Dogecoin (DOGE +1.38%).
Bitcoin
Bitcoin is up 12% in the past month and now trades around the $67,000 mark. As a result, investors are becoming increasingly confident that Bitcoin could make a final year-end push to regain and surpass its all-time high of $73,750. That would set Bitcoin up nicely to mount an assault on the $100,000 price level in 2025.
CRYPTO: BTC
Key Data Points
The one factor that has my attention right now is something known as the Crypto Fear & Greed Index. This is a number between 0 and 100 that tells you how fearful or greedy crypto investors are. The closer the number is to 0, the more fear there is in the market, and the closer the number is to 100, the more greed there is in the market.
For much of the past two months, this index has been tracking around 50 or lower. Essentially, investors were neutral to bearish about the future direction of crypto prices. That made sense, given the crypto "flash crash" in August, which sent prices of most digital assets plunging.
But in mid-October, this number suddenly skyrocketed into the 70s, signaling a potential revival of positive sentiment. This is a level last seen in the early part of the year, right after the launch of the new spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs).
The most likely explanation for this shift is the presidential election cycle. Bitcoin has become a political campaign issue in 2024, and investors could be gearing up for a big post-election rally. The big caveat here, of course, is that investor sentiment can be very fickle, so this should not be your only reason for buying Bitcoin now.
Dogecoin
This year also has seen a revival of meme coin mania, with many speculative meme coins spiking by 100% or more for the year. Until recently, Dogecoin had not gone along for the ride. However, during the past 30 days, Dogecoin is up about 22% and suddenly shows signs of life again.
CRYPTO: DOGE
Key Data Points
There can only be one possible explanation for this: billionaire Elon Musk. He's been a notable Dogecoin advocate for years, and he's made a number of cryptic announcements recently that have given Dogecoin holders hope that the coin is about to take off.
Image source: Getty Images.
For example, Musk has been talking about spearheading a new government efficiency initiative in a future Donald Trump administration. That sounds pretty boring, until you start to analyze Musk's proposed name for this initiative: Department of Government Efficiency, or DOGE. Yes, the DOGE ticker symbol could become the name for a new governmental entity. That could signal some new role for Dogecoin within the U.S. government.
And it goes beyond this. At the recent Tesla (TSLA +3.93%) launch event for the Cybercab, guess who was seen going for a ride in these vehicles? Yes, a dog representing the Dogecoin mascot. That set off immediate speculation that Tesla might attempt to integrate Dogecoin payments into its future vehicles, or even make them available for purchase with Dogecoin.
Granted, this is pretty thin stuff. But if you're a meme coin investor, this is what you live for. Who wouldn't want a high-profile billionaire keeping their meme coin in the limelight? For the year, Dogecoin is now up about 38% and could be poised to make another run at the $1 mark.
Bitcoin or Dogecoin?
If forced to choose between Bitcoin and Dogecoin, the obvious no-brainer pick is Bitcoin. After all, Dogecoin is still just a meme coin, meaning it trades purely on hype, speculation, and buzz. Unfortunately, as billionaire Mark Cuban recently remarked, "Every meme coin is a rug pull in the works." In other words, the value of Dogecoin could fall to zero overnight, and nobody would be very surprised.
It's a much different case with Bitcoin. This is a coin that has a viable long-term outlook. It is gaining in both corporate and institutional adoption, and the new spot Bitcoin ETFs that launched in January are helping Bitcoin to move into the mainstream. On top of all that, Bitcoin continues to benefit from the perception that it can be a long-term store of value and a potential safe asset during times of political and economic duress.
As a result, I'm loading up on Bitcoin during the final two months of 2024. It's ready to take off, and I wouldn't be surprised at all if Bitcoin makes a serious run at $100,000 before the end of the year.
