Intel (INTC 4.88%) has fallen behind rival Advanced Micro Devices in the lucrative server CPU market over the past few years. It still has a leading market share, but AMD's server chips have been more powerful and more energy efficient.
The latter company has been taking advantage of the latest manufacturing technology from Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSMC), while Intel was stuck on its aging Intel 7 manufacturing process until recently.
It has closed the gap with AMD this year with two new server CPU families, the power-focused Granite Rapids and the efficiency-focused Sierra Forest. Both chips are manufactured partly on the Intel 3 process, which is far more advanced than Intel 7. Intel ramped up the core count for both families, eliminating one of the major disadvantages of the last generation of its server CPUs.
Intel is now in a better competitive position in the server CPU market, and it could gain even more ground in 2025 with the projected launch of its Clearwater Forest family of chips, which will be a crucial product for the company.
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Key Data Points
A many-core monster
Clearwater Forest is the successor to Sierra Forest, which currently has up to 144 efficiency cores with a 288-core version in the works. Clearwater Forest will likely have at least as many cores, although Intel hasn't provided hard numbers.
These efficiency cores are well suited for cloud computing workloads that don't require top-tier single-threaded performance, and the high core density allows cloud providers and other customers to pack more cores into a smaller footprint.
Clearwater Forest will be one of the first products to use the Intel 18A manufacturing process, on which the company has essentially staked its turnaround. Management believes that 18A will be the most advanced manufacturing process available when it is launched next year, allowing it to reclaim its manufacturing edge over TSMC.
Intel 18A will bring with it a new transistor type as well as backside power delivery, which promises to meaningfully boost efficiency. The chips will use the company's advanced packaging technology, and they'll be the first from the chipmaker to feature 3D cache, which it is calling "Local Cache." This is similar to the 3D V-cache that AMD includes in some of its gaming CPUs, and it can provide a performance boost for certain types of workloads.
Clearwater Forest will not only battle AMD, but it will also be up against Arm-based server CPUs. Large cloud companies are increasingly designing their own Arm server chips, but Clearwater Forest could make such a move less appealing.
A showcase for the foundry business
Intel is aiming to become the second-largest semiconductor foundry by 2030, and the Intel 18A process will make or break the effort. It has secured a handful of customers for Intel 18A, including Microsoft and Amazon, but it will need to fill up its foundry with other third-party chips for its massive manufacturing investments to pay off.
Given Intel's manufacturing missteps in the past, the company is likely facing an uphill battle convincing chip designers to commit to Intel 18A. Clearwater Forest -- if it's delivered on time, in high volumes, and with impressive performance and efficiency -- will act as a strong argument for giving Intel 18A a shot. If Clearwater Forest is a home run, Intel 18A is going to get a serious look from TSMC's biggest customers.
The chipmaker's turnaround has been slow and painful, nearly derailed by a post-pandemic slump in the PC market and a shift in data center spending to AI chips. However, there's light at the end of the tunnel. Intel 18A is on track, and Clearwater Forest can help boost the company's server CPU business and act as a powerful bit of marketing for the foundry business. But, as always with Intel, patience is required from investors.
