The past year has been a somewhat disappointing one for Applied Materials (AMAT +1.86%) investors. Share prices of the semiconductor equipment supplier did gain 15.5%, but they have underperformed the 31.5% gains clocked by the S&P 500 index over the same period.
The stock's below-par performance can be attributed to the drop in semiconductor sales last year. More specifically, global semiconductor sales saw a decline of 8.2% in 2023. However, the industry's fortunes have changed remarkably in 2024, with sales expected to increase by 19% to $627 billion. But will that be enough to spur demand for Applied Materials' equipment and help the stock deliver stronger gains in the coming year?
NASDAQ: AMAT
Key Data Points
The next year could be much better for Applied Materials
Applied Materials' revenue in fiscal 2024 (which ended on Oct. 27) increased by just 2% from the previous year to $27.2 billion. The company's adjusted earnings were up 7% in fiscal 2024 to $8.65 per share. The good news for Applied Materials investors is that the semiconductor industry's growth trajectory is set to continue in 2025, with sales expected to increase by 11.2% to $697 billion.
This explains why Applied Materials management pointed toward an improving demand environment on its previous earnings conference call, driven by catalysts such as artificial intelligence (AI). This is reflected in the company's guidance as well. Applied Materials anticipates $7.15 billion in revenue in the current quarter at the midpoint, which would be a 7% jump from the year-ago quarter.
There is a chance that its growth could accelerate as 2025 progresses considering the new semiconductor manufacturing capacity that's set to come online next year. According to industry association SEMI, the semiconductor industry's capacity is expected to jump by 7% in 2025 following a 6% increase this year.
Another thing worth noting here is that the capacity for producing advanced chips is expected to grow at a stronger pace of 17%, driven by the production ramp-up of gate-all-around (GAA) chips by the likes of Samsung and Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing. This bodes well for Applied Materials as the company sold $2.5 billion worth of equipment in fiscal 2024 for manufacturing gate-all-around chips.
Management expects its revenue from sales of GAA manufacturing equipment to double this year, believing that it could capture more than 50% of the GAA equipment market. At the same time, Applied Materials benefits from the growing demand for high-bandwidth memory (HBM) that's deployed in AI servers.
The company's revenue from HBM packaging came in at $700 million in fiscal 2024. This figure should ideally increase at a robust pace next year as the HBM market is expected to generate $21 billion in revenue in 2025 from $12.3 billion this year, according to Gartner.
Meanwhile, additional catalysts for semiconductor equipment sales such as the focus on improving manufacturing capacity in the U.S. should be tailwinds for Applied Materials. It is estimated that around $70 billion will be spent by major foundries such as Samsung, TSMC, and GlobalFoundries in constructing their U.S. fabrication plants next year.
So, the overall picture of the semiconductor industry appears to be quite solid for 2025, which is probably why analysts expect healthy gains from Applied Materials stock over the next year.
Strong earnings growth could lead to respectable gains in the coming year
Applied Materials has a 12-month median price target of $225 as per 37 analysts covering the stock. That would be a 30% increase from current levels. Applied Materials is currently trading at just 20 times trailing earnings and 17 times forward earnings. Those multiples represent a nice discount to the Nasdaq-100 index's earnings multiple of 34.
Assuming that the market decides to reward Applied Materials with a higher earnings multiple and the company records a 10% increase in earnings in fiscal 2025 to $9.50 per share (in line with analysts' expectations), its stock price could jump to $285. So, there is a chance that Applied Materials stock could clock much stronger gains in the next year than analysts expect, which is why it would be a good idea to buy it at its current level.
