Semiconductor-giant Nvidia (NVDA 1.02%) had a terrific 2024, but a closer look at its recent stock-price chart shows that it's entering the new year on shaky ground, thanks to doubts about the company's ability to maintain its impressive pace of growth. More specifically, Nvidia stock is down more than 6% since releasing its fiscal 2025 third-quarter results on Nov. 20, 2024.
Though the chipmaker's revenue and earnings crushed expectations last quarter and its guidance exceeded expectations, investors seem concerned about the potential pressure on Nvidia's margins, thanks to the ramp up of its Blackwell artificial intelligence (AI) processors, as well as the deceleration in its top-line growth.
NASDAQ: NVDA
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However, savvy investors would do well to look beyond these concerns, as there's a big catalyst that could help Nvidia regain its mojo in 2025.
Nvidia could sell at least $180 billion worth of AI processors in 2025
According to various reports, investment banking and financial services provider Jefferies estimates that Nvidia could ship approximately 6 million data center graphics processing units (GPUs) in 2025, helping the chipmaker generate $180 billion to $200 billion in revenue. And Jefferies' forecast is on the conservative side when compared to the buy-side estimate of $205 billion to $215 billion.
Morgan Stanley, for instance, expects Nvidia to generate $210 billion in revenue from sales of its Blackwell systems alone in 2025, indicating that its overall data center revenue could be much higher, considering that the company will continue selling its previous generation Hopper processors in 2025. But even if Nvidia manages to achieve at least $180 billion in data center GPU revenue in 2025, it would be a big improvement over its potential data center revenue for 2024.
In the first nine months of fiscal 2025 (which ended on Oct. 27, 2024), Nvidia's data center revenue stood at $79.6 billion. However, this figure also includes the sales of Nvidia's data center networking chips. Nvidia sold $69.6 billion worth of data center GPUs in the first three quarters of fiscal 2025, with the remaining $10 billion attributable to sales of its networking products.
Data center GPUs alone accounted for 76% of the $91 billion revenue that Nvidia generated in the first nine months of the fiscal year. The company has guided for $37.5 billion in revenue for the fourth quarter of fiscal 2025 (which will end in January 2025). Assuming a 75% revenue contribution from data center GPUs in fiscal Q4, as well, Nvidia's revenue from sales of these chips could land at $28 billion.
Adding that figure to the data center revenue that Nvidia has generated in the first nine months, the company is likely to end fiscal 2025 -- which coincides with 11 months of calendar 2024 -- with $97.6 billion in data center GPU revenue for the year. Jefferies' estimate suggests that Nvidia's data center GPU sales could jump at least 84% in fiscal 2026, which will coincide with the majority of calendar 2025.
Jefferies' $180 billion estimate is based on an average selling price of $30,000 for each data center GPU that Nvidia sells. That's not surprising, as the company is expected to price its Blackwell processors between $30,000 and $40,000.
However, that price range also means that there's market for a higher average selling price, which could allow Nvidia to generate stronger data center GPU revenue in 2025. Meanwhile, there are other estimates that point toward higher shipments of Nvidia's data center GPUs in the new year. So there's a possibility that Nvidia could generate stronger-than-expected data center GPU revenue in the coming fiscal year.
In addition, Jefferies' forecast indicates that Nvidia could generate an incremental $82.4 billion in data center GPU revenue next year (calculated by deducting fiscal 2025's estimated revenue of $97.6 billion from $180 billion). Assuming Nvidia's other businesses remain stagnant, its top line could land at $211 billion in fiscal 2026 (arrived at by adding $82.4 billion to Nvidia's estimated fiscal 2025 revenue of $128.5 billion).
However, the company has been enjoying growth in all of its other end markets, as well, which indicates it could be on track to crush the average revenue estimate of $195 billion for fiscal 2026.
Buying the stock is a no-brainer right now
The discussion above tells us that Nvidia seems set to deliver another year of outstanding growth in 2025 that could outpace analysts' expectations. That's why savvy investors will do well to buy this AI stock while it's still trading at an attractive 32 times forward earnings, which is lower than the Nasdaq-100 index's earnings multiple of 33 (using the index as a proxy for tech stocks).
Moreover, Nvidia's price/earnings-to-growth ratio (PEG ratio) stands at 0.98, according to Yahoo! Finance. This is another indicator that Nvidia is worth buying right now, as a PEG ratio of less than 1 means that a stock is undervalued in light of its earnings growth potential -- which could be stronger than expected in 2025 and help shares skyrocket, once again, following the recent sluggishness.
