FMC (FMC 0.09%) stock crashed 36.3% through 9:50 a.m. ET Wednesday after reporting mixed earnings last night.
Heading into the report, analysts forecast that FMC would earn $1.60 per share in Q4, and FMC beat that number with a stick, reporting adjusted profits of $1.79 per share. However, analysts also thought FMC's sales would exceed $1.3 billion. In fact, sales were barely $1.2 billion.
NYSE: FMC
Key Data Points
FMC Q4 earnings
FMC's sales grew 12% organically, but adverse foreign exchange rates limited dollar-denominated sales growth to 7%. The news on profits was arguably worse. While adjusted profits exceeded expectations for the quarter, earnings, as calculated according to generally accepted accounting principles (GAAP), ran negative. GAAP "earnings" were a loss of $0.13 per share.
Understandably, CEO Pierre Brondeau encouraged investors to focus on the company's "solid sales" and its non-GAAP earnings for the quarter, noting that the agricultural chemicals company enjoyed "a good increase in volume." Sales still weren't as good as management hoped, however, a fact Brondeau explained thusly: "Customers in many countries sought to hold significantly less inventory than they have historically."
The lousy quarter capped a bad year for FMC, which saw sales slide 5% in total. GAAP earnings in 2024 were only $2.72 per share, down 74% from 2023.
FMC 2025 guidance
Turning to guidance, FMC foresees "essentially flat" 2025 revenue ranging from $4.15 billion to $4.35 billion. While management hopes to grow sales volumes, FMC worries that customers will continue to hold "lower-than-historical levels" of inventory, which may limit sales growth. FMC also predicts prices will decline in the low- to mid-single digits this year, further weighing on sales.
As regards earnings, FMC gave only an adjusted forecast, $3.26 to $3.70 per share. It also warned that free cash flow will decline to about $300 million, plus or minus $100 million.
With FMC stock valued at 22.5 times current year projected free cash flow, sales still falling, and profits looking very weak, I cannot call FMC stock a buy at this time.
