When analyzing stocks, listening to interviews or reading reports conducted by equity research analysts on Wall Street can be helpful. Personally, I find augmenting my own research with the findings of industry experts pretty valuable, as it helps build a more inclusive, well-rounded view of a business.
One drawback from this approach, however, is that it can be easy to buy into someone else's opinion quickly -- essentially getting distracted enough to not ask any questions. Last week, Citron Research made a splash after it labeled Teladoc Health (TDOC 2.29%) a hidden artificial intelligence (AI) opportunity that is still viewed by many as a "pandemic relic."
Citron's narrative has rejuvenated enthusiasm around Teladoc, but does that make the stock a buy? Read on to find out what I think.
NYSE: TDOC
Key Data Points
Teladoc's time at the top was short-lived
The chart below illustrates Teladoc's stock performance since its initial public offering (IPO). Back in 2021, shares of Teladoc were soaring -- notching a price of almost $300. Of note, Teladoc's share price was hovering around all-time highs close to the time period depicted by the grey-shaded column. That's important, because the grey column represents the COVID-19 recession.
Why was Teladoc stock experiencing such bullish buying activity during the peak days of COVID? It's because the company specializes in telemedicine services, a product that essentially became normalized overnight due to the pandemic-induced lockdowns.
But as the graph makes clear, Teladoc's stock price has cratered from its highs -- and candidly, it's never really recovered since the peak days of the pandemic started to wane.
Image source: Getty Images.
Why does Citron believe in Teladoc?
Citron acknowledges that demand for Teladoc's telemedicine services has slowed down since the economic reopening and widespread vaccine availability. However, its analysts argue that Teladoc's depressed share price is tied too closely to mundane revenue growth as opposed to the full picture -- namely, a company that's quietly expanding profit margins and growing its cash flow.
TDOC data by YCharts. Is it time to buy Teladoc stock?
When you look at the trends in the charts above, it's hard to disagree with Citron. While Teladoc's revenue has started to plateau following levels experienced between 2020 and 2021, the company's free cash flow has quietly climbed higher. These dynamics imply that Teladoc has identified ways to unlock efficiencies across the business, and achieve higher degrees of operating leverage despite stalling revenue.
In Citron's post, the firm writes, "While AI hype stocks trade at wild multiples, Teladoc is using technology the right way." To be honest, I think that Citron is conflating Teladoc's ability to command strong unit economics with the efficiencies that AI presents when it comes to automating business operations.
During Teladoc's third-quarter earnings call back in October, management did not reference the terms "artificial intelligence" or "AI" a single time. More broadly, the team only used the word "technology" in passing, stating that the company will "further leverage technology to drive greater scale and differentiation and to deliver a more integrated experience for our members and providers."
Another point Citron goes on to make is that Teladoc's high-margin, cash-flow-positive business could be seen as a desirable asset for Amazon or CVS Health. Personally, I think Citron is trying to subtly imply that Teladoc could be a potential acquisition target for Amazon Pharmacy or competing platforms.
Is Teladoc stock a buy now?
As of this writing (Feb. 10), Teladoc stock trades at 95% below its all-time highs. In my eyes, shares of Teladoc became egregiously overbought during the peak days of COVID and are now likely quite oversold.
I'll admit that Teladoc stock looks cheap on a price-to-free-cash-flow basis, as the stock has barely moved despite the company's impressive turnaround campaign underscored by consistent and rising profits.
I don't say this in a jaded way at all, but the commentary I shared above from Teladoc's management team is pretty standard corporate jargon. As far as I can tell, AI doesn't seem to be much of a priority for Teladoc, and Citron's attribution of the company's newfound profits to its investment in AI infrastructure doesn't seem to hold much water. Furthermore, while Teladoc's depressed valuation could work in favor of a potential acquirer, it's difficult to pinpoint if an acquisition would become a reality.
At the end of the day, I still think there is too much speculation surrounding Teladoc to see the stock as a rock-solid buy. Although I commend the company's leadership team in its efforts to right the ship, I think the narratives that Teladoc is a hidden AI gem or a potential acquisition candidate are too much of a stretch right now. For these reasons, I'd pass on buying the stock. Teladoc still has a lot to prove.
