Plug Power (PLUG +0.00%), a developer of hydrogen charging technologies, went public at a reverse-split adjusted price of $150 in 1999. Its stock subsequently soared during the dot-com boom and closed at a record high of $1,498 on March 10, 2000.
But after that boom came the bust. Its original plans to build hydrogen-powered residential systems for homes flopped, and it struggled to narrow its net losses. It eventually pivoted toward selling hydrogen fuel and charging systems for warehouses, forklifts, electrolyzers, and cryogenic storage solutions, but it's still struggling to prove that business model is sustainable.
Image source: Getty Images.
Today, Plug's stock trades at less than $2. Investors who had invested $10,000 at its dot-com peak saw their investment wither to about $11 over the past 25 years. While it's doubtful Plug will ever revisit its all-time high, it actually might be worth buying today as a contrarian investment for one simple reason: Its insiders are net buyers again.
How many shares are Plug's insiders buying?
Over the past 12 months, Plug's insiders bought 2.22 million shares, but only sold 183,733 shares. In the past three months, they bought 84,775 shares, but didn't sell any shares. That's only a small fraction of its 925.18 million outstanding shares, but that warming insider sentiment suggests its struggling stock could be bottoming out.
NASDAQ: PLUG
Key Data Points
Why might Plug's insiders be warming up to its chilly stock again?
Plug Power still leads the nascent hydrogen fuel cell and charging market. It's the world's single-largest buyer of liquid hydrogen, has already deployed more than 69,000 fuel cell systems and 250 fueling stations, and its top customers include Amazon and Walmart -- which both hold its stock warrants.
Plug suffered a severe slowdown over the past three years as its net losses widened. That deceleration was caused by inflation, rising rates, and other macro headwinds, which curbed the market's appetite for expensive hydrogen charging projects.
|
Metric |
2022 |
2023 |
2024 |
|---|---|---|---|
|
Revenue |
$701 million |
$891 million |
$629 million |
|
Revenue growth |
40% |
27% |
(29%) |
|
Net income (loss) |
($724 million) |
($1.37 billion) |
($2.10 billion) |
Data source: Plug Power. Table by author.
That situation seems bleak for a company that only had $206 million in unrestricted cash and equivalents at the end of 2024. But this January, Plug finalized a $1.66 billion loan guarantee from the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) to finance its construction of six green hydrogen manufacturing plants. That lifeline should give it more time to turn around its business.
Plug Power aims to stabilize it business over the next five years. Starting in 2025, it plans to reduce its annual costs by $150 million-$200 million with its "Project Quantum Leap" restructuring plan -- which includes workforce reductions, facility consolidations, sale-leaseback deals, and lower discretionary spending. It also plans to reduce its stack and system costs, improve its network efficiency, and expand the gross margins of its electrolyzer, hydrogen, and material handling businesses.
If it successfully executes those plans, it expects to achieve a positive gross margin in 2025, a positive operating margin in 2027, and its first net profit by the end of 2028. Its recent insider buying suggests it might achieve those ambitious goals.
Plug Power is still a highly speculative stock
For 2025, analysts expect Plug Power's revenue to rise 12% to $707 million as it narrows its net loss from $2.1 billion to $602 million. That outlook assumes the macro environment will stabilize and the hydrogen market will warm up again, but the Trump administration's unpredictable tariffs and policies could disrupt that recovery.
With an enterprise value of $2.4 billion, Plug Power doesn't look expensive at 3 times this year's sales. However, it also increased its number of outstanding shares by 188% over the past five years with its secondary offerings and stock-based compensation -- and that ongoing dilution could overshadow its insider buying.
Therefore, Plug Power could remain a speculative stock for the foreseeable future. Its insider buying hints at a potential turnaround, but investors should do their homework before accumulating shares of this volatile green energy stock.
