The U.S. Federal Reserve is facing heavy pressure to cut interest rates. President Donald Trump recently warned that Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's job could be at risk if he doesn't cut rates fast.
But let's set aside all the political undertones and deal-making calculations, and focus on the overarching questions: What happens to cryptocurrency prices if there is a rate cut? And which cryptocurrencies would become most attractive in a lower-rate environment?
The relationship between interest rates and crypto prices
The general rule of thumb is that rising interest rates result in lower crypto prices, while declining interest rates result in higher crypto prices. That might sound simplistic, but when rates are lower, the cost of borrowing is lower. Moreover, risky assets suddenly appear more attractive on a relative basis. That generally leads to an infusion of new money pouring into crypto.
This is the scenario that Charles Hoskinson, the co-founder of both Ethereum (ETH 1.04%) and Cardano (ADA 0.10%), now sees happening with the crypto market. In a recent podcast interview with CNBC, he laid out a scenario where lower interest rates might lead to a new speculative frenzy in crypto, helping to push Bitcoin (BTC 0.48%) to $250,000 by the end of the year. That's incredibly bullish but gives you an idea of the immediate impact a rate cut could have on crypto.
Historical evidence
Given that Bitcoin officially started trading in January 2009, three distinct time periods over the past 15 years could provide important clues about the link between crypto prices and interest rates.
There was the low interest-rate environment created in response to the 2008 global financial crisis; the Federal Reserve's policy of interest rate increases in 2017–2018; and the low interest-rate environment created in response to the pandemic.
If you look at these three periods, they all tell the same story: Lower interest rates help crypto, while higher interest rates hurt it.
The Federal Reserve Building in Washington. Image source: Getty Images.
For example, during the COVID-19 pandemic, central banks around the world slashed interest rates nearly to zero and introduced all sorts of new stimulus measures, in the hopes of reviving economic growth.
And it worked! The period from 2020-2021 resulted in a huge bull market rally for Bitcoin, as it skyrocketed in value to a (then) all-time high of $69,000 in November 2021.
It's easy to see why President Trump is now pressing so hard for interest rate cuts. If new tariffs are going to curtail future economic growth, then there needs to be some sort of stimulus to keep the economy moving. And that stimulus is cheap money.
Just keep in mind: Crypto is still a relatively new asset class, and we still really don't know how it will perform after rate cuts. History may be a guide, but it's not a precise indicator of what happens next.
Which cryptos should you buy?
Based on the above, Bitcoin appears to be the obvious beneficiary of lower interest rates. After all, didn't it skyrocket to $69,000 as soon as rates were cut in 2020?
CRYPTO: BTC
Key Data Points
However, don't forget about altcoins. In an environment of lower interest rates, riskier assets such as beaten-down altcoins (some of them down as much as 50% for the year) could start to look a lot more attractive on a relative basis. And that might mean we finally get the arrival of "Altcoin Season" -- the time of the year when risky altcoins explode in value and outperform Bitcoin.
All of this should highlight the importance of portfolio diversification. It still makes sense to make Bitcoin the focus of any new crypto buying in the wake of rate cuts, but now might be the time to explore new coins to diversify your portfolio.
My personal pick right now would be coins with significant exposure to the decentralized finance (DeFi) sector. That's what World Liberty Financial, the crypto company affiliated with the Trump family, appears to be loading up on now. These coins also performed very well during the 2020-2021 crypto bull market cycle, highlighted by the speculative, frothy "DeFi Summer" of 2020.
As always, remember to do your due diligence. Crypto has always been risky and volatile, and the current economy is especially dicey, with unknown consequences ahead.
