Apple (AAPL +1.18%) has been the defining big tech stock over the past decade. For most of that time, it has reigned as the world's largest company, although Microsoft currently holds that title. However, I think there is a strong chance that a few companies could surpass Apple in terms of market cap over the next five years.
The contenders should come as no surprise, as it's going to take an already large company to pass up Apple. The three I think have a strong chance of doing it are Nvidia (NVDA +5.93%), Amazon (AMZN +0.53%), and Alphabet (GOOG +2.92%) (GOOGL +2.53%).
A lot can happen in three years, but I think the odds are high that these three are larger than Apple during that time frame.
Image source: Getty Images.
1. Nvidia
Nvidia is probably the biggest layup in this group, as it only trails Apple by about $100 billion in terms of valuation. While that sounds like a huge number (and it is), it indicates that Nvidia stock needs to rise about 3.5% to pass Apple. However, I believe that Nvidia will create an insurmountable valuation lead over Apple in the next five years.
NASDAQ: NVDA
Key Data Points
Nvidia's graphics processing units (GPUs) dominate the data center market and are the top pick for running AI models. The industry is a long way from the data center buildout being complete, and Nvidia projects that data center capital expenditures will rise from $400 billion in 2024 to $1 trillion by 2028. Nvidia makes a ton of money from these builds, so massive growth from its primary market will propel Nvidia higher.
Wall Street analysts project 54% and 23% revenue growth for Nvidia in FY 2026 and FY 2027, while Apple's estimates are 4% and 6% growth in FY 2025 and FY 2026. Nvidia's superior growth will vault it ahead of Apple, securing its place as either the world's largest or second-largest company.
2. Amazon
Amazon has a much trickier road ahead with tariffs affecting many of the goods sold on its platform that come from China, which is currently subject to a hefty tariff rate. However, that's the wrong way to assess Amazon stock.
NASDAQ: AMZN
Key Data Points
Instead, investors should look at where the profits come from. In Q1, 63% of Amazon's operating profits came from its cloud computing division, Amazon Web Services (AWS). This division also saw impressive growth, with revenue rising 17% in the quarter and operating profits increasing 23%.
Companywide, Amazon's revenue rose 9% year over year, with operating profits increasing 20%. This will become the status quo for Amazon, as its higher-margin businesses are growing much faster than some of its larger divisions that don't have as great of margins. As a result, Amazon's operating margins are steadily ticking up.
AMZN Operating Margin (Quarterly) data by YCharts
This strong growth rate is much faster than Apple's, and this trend will eventually allow Amazon to surpass Apple over the next five years.
AMZN Operating Income (Quarterly YoY Growth) data by YCharts
3. Alphabet
Last is Alphabet, which is an interesting pick for this list. Alphabet has been found guilty of operating an illegal monopoly in its Google search engine and advertising business. To further complicate matters, Eddy Cue, Apple's senior vice president of services, testified in federal court that he believes AI search engines will replace products like Google.
NASDAQ: GOOGL
Key Data Points
This caused Alphabet shares to sink following the news, but it's nothing that investors (or Google) didn't already know. Alphabet has already worked to integrate AI-powered search summaries at the top of each Google search, so it's already preparing for this change. Furthermore, Cue mentioned that Apple was planning to add AI search options from various AI competitors, which means Alphabet wouldn't need to pay Apple $20 billion as the default search engine.
If Alphabet had that $20 billion back and Apple didn't receive it, that would be a massive swing in profits toward Alphabet's direction, despite Alphabet already generating more profits than Apple.
AAPL Net Income (TTM) data by YCharts
If both companies received the same valuation, Alphabet would already be worth more than Apple. Now, if Apple loses $20 billion of pure profit paid to it by Alphabet and Alphabet gets to keep it, these numbers become even more skewed toward Alphabet's favor.
There's still a lot of risk in Alphabet's stock due to a potential breakup or Google losing the AI search race. But if it emerges alright from those two events, it has the potential to overtake Apple in terms of valuation.
