SoFi Technologies (SOFI -0.61%) has had a bumpy ride. Its stock has fluctuated between $6 and $18 over the past year alone. The market is still trying to determine what to make of the all-digital bank. The business has performed well despite some sizable headwinds.
Now, those headwinds are dissipating, which could finally allow SoFi Technologies to realize its full potential. But will the stock reward investors who buy now?
Here is where SoFi Technologies could trade in May 2028.
High-octane growth has obscured tough challenges behind the scenes
It can be tempting to pass judgment on a stock that hasn't performed well for an extended period. SoFi Technologies joined the public market via a reverse SPAC merger in mid-2021, and today, it's down nearly 50% from the all-time high it set shortly afterward. In the interim, however, it had been in far worse straits -- down by more than 83% at the bottom of its trough.
Image source: Getty Images
However, context is essential, and there's a lot of relevant context in play with this company.
For starters, SoFi went public at the height of a stock market bubble that was powered in part by the zero-percent benchmark interest rates that helped keep the economy functioning during the COVID-19 pandemic. But the pandemic took the wind out of its core business. SoFi built its name in the student loan space, and the federal government temporarily froze repayments of those loans as part of its effort to keep Americans' finances secure amid the crisis.
Additionally, the combination of monetary stimulus and widespread supply chain issues leading to shortages of goods and commodities eventually stoked inflation, which the Federal Reserve responded to by raising the federal funds rate off of its near-zero level at one of the sharpest paces in modern history. That essentially popped the stock market bubble. It also slammed the brakes on consumer borrowing.
SoFi Technologies kept making strides through all of this, though. The company's digital banking ecosystem, accessible by customers through its smartphone super app, is wildly popular. SoFi's grown to over 10.9 million members from just 3.4 million in 2021.
Plus, the company got a banking charter in 2022, which helped it generate net income for the first time last year. Not bad for a company dealing with a laundry list of problems.
SoFi's core business could finally get back on track
It's remarkable when you put numbers to it: SoFi's quarterly student loan originations peaked just before the pandemic at $2.4 billion in Q4 2019. The company's total net revenue was approximately $451 million that year.
SoFi's student loan business has begun recovering, but originations were still only about $1.2 billion in Q1 2025. Yet management is guiding for over $3.2 billion in net revenue this year. The business has grown that much despite its former bread-and-butter student loan business imploding.
The U.S. government is now aggressively pushing to get borrowers back to repaying their student loans. That could spark a wave of refinancing activity for SoFi, which has a much larger user base and greater access to capital than it did in 2019.
The outlook for SoFi Technologies' stock
Investors should be excited about what student loan growth could do for SoFi's business over the next several years as borrowers scramble to refinance their loans after the long repayment freeze. And that would come on top of SoFi's already-rampant growth. Its member base was up by 34% year over year in Q1 2025. And the digital bank still has vast cross-selling opportunities -- its average member uses just 1.45 of its products.
SoFi's recent strides on the profitability front have begun driving its book value per share higher, and that growth should continue due to the operating leverage the company has achieved.
SOFI Tangible Book Value (Per Share) data by YCharts.
Today, the stock trades at 3.2 times its tangible book value (TBV). That might seem expensive at first glance. For example, JPMorgan Chase trades at almost 2.8 times its TBV. However, SoFi's TBV has grown by 14.6% over the past four quarters while JPMorgan's is up by 8.4%.
That's a long-winded way of saying SoFi's membership and TBV growth warrant a premium.
Management is guiding for a 12% increase in TBV this year. If SoFi sustains that growth rate over the next three years -- a reasonable expectation given the student loan growth ahead -- and if it keeps its current TBV ratio, the stock will trade near $19, almost 50% higher than its current price.
I wouldn't be surprised if SoFi's growth accelerated and the stock did better, but I'd rather be overly cautious than expect too much and be disappointed. Either way, SoFi Technologies is a business headed in the right direction, and the stock's current valuation positions it for solid, if not outsized, shareholder returns over the next three years, and possibly beyond.
