Microsoft (MSFT 0.50%) first became the world's biggest company based on market cap in September 1998. It stayed No. 1 for less than 18 months before being dethroned. But the software giant has clawed its way back to the top in 2025.
I don't think Microsoft's reign will last very long this time, either. What's more, I predict that the following three stocks will be worth more than Microsoft 10 years from now.
Image source: Getty Images.
1. Nvidia
I suspect Nvidia (NVDA +1.95%) will move past Microsoft quite soon. It could even happen in a matter of days or weeks. Nvidia is certainly in the best position to knock Microsoft off its perch with its market cap already topping $3.3 trillion.
What will it take for Nvidia to take the top spot? Not much. Any hiccup with Microsoft's business could be enough to enable Nvidia to regain the position it briefly held last year as the world's largest company based on market cap.
NASDAQ: NVDA
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However, I don't think Microsoft has to stumble for it to happen. Nvidia is poised to be the biggest beneficiary of several artificial intelligence (AI) trends, notably including the rapid adoption of AI agents that can reason. These AI agents require enormous computing power. Nvidia's GPUs remain the most powerful chips on the market for AI inference used by AI agents.
It won't surprise me in the least if Nvidia becomes the first company with a market cap of $5 trillion. Sure, the restrictions on AI chip exports to China will hurt its growth to some extent. However, I don't think this headwind will keep Nvidia from becoming much larger over the next decade.
2. Apple
Apple (AAPL +0.33%) dominated as the world's largest company throughout most of the last 10 years. Microsoft was its main rival for the No. 1 position during this period. Although Apple's market cap is now smaller than both Microsoft's and Nvidia's, I think the iPhone maker won't be in third place or lower by 2035.
The big question hovering over Apple is: What's the next big breakthrough product for the company? Apple Watch has been successful, but it isn't in the same league as the iPhone. Apple's Vision Pro mixed-reality headset has been a commercial disappointment. Its generative AI functionality, branded as Apple Intelligence, hasn't provided the spark that many investors hoped it would, either.
NASDAQ: AAPL
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I think smart glasses just might be the much-anticipated next huge hit for Apple. Rumors are circulating that the company plans to launch its first AI-enhanced glasses as early as late 2026. These glasses will compete against Meta Platforms Ray-Ban AI glasses.
But Apple is also reportedly working on smart glasses that support augmented reality (AR). This could be the real game-changer for the company. If Tim Cook and his team can leverage some of the technology used on Vision Pro, Apple just might be able to launch smart glasses that become nearly as must-have as the iPhone years ago.
3. Amazon
Amazon (AMZN +2.02%) has never been the world's largest company. It doesn't necessarily have to be to leap past Microsoft over the next 10 years, though.
It wasn't too long ago that I thought Microsoft would be able to retain its market cap advantage over Amazon for years to come. Why have I changed my mind? Mainly because I suspect that Amazon Web Services (AWS) will be able to hold on to its leadership in the cloud services market more strongly than I anticipated in the past.
NASDAQ: AMZN
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Part of my shifting opinion is due to Microsoft's seemingly deteriorating relationship with OpenAI. Without OpenAI's ChatGPT, I don't believe Microsoft would claim the largest market cap today. The less tight the bond between the two companies, the less confidence I have that Microsoft Azure will be able to narrow the market share gap with AWS.
Another reason why I'm more optimistic about Amazon now, though, is that the company continues to fire on all cylinders. Its AI initiatives are impressive, including the development of its own AI chips. The company's focus on the bottom line is paying off. Amazon is also expanding into new businesses, with the recent launch of its Project Kuiper satellites that will provide global internet access serving as a great example.
Granted, Amazon must grow significantly faster than Microsoft over the next 10 years for its market cap to become larger. However, I predict that's exactly what will happen.
