IonQ (IONQ -0.72%) is a popular quantum computing investment. It has displayed solid progress in solving fundamental quantum computing problems and holds many lucrative contracts. However, the stock has been quite volatile since December 2024 (when Alphabet (NASDAQ: GOOG) (NASDAQ: GOOGL) initiated the quantum computing investing trend), and it currently sits around 30% off of its all-time high at the time of writing.
With how volatile quantum computing stocks have been recently, that figure could easily reach 50% off the all-time high or be as little as 10% off within a matter of days. That's because quantum computing stocks are very headline-driven. There really isn't a market for quantum computing products just yet, but within five years, there may be.
Where will IonQ be in five years? Its CEO has some bold predictions about the company's future.
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IonQ's approach to quantum computing appears to be succeeding
IonQ uses trapped ion technology to power its quantum computers. These trapped ions form qubits, the basic computing unit in quantum computing. Unlike traditional computing, which uses bits (only 0s or 1s) to transmit information, qubits can hold a value of anywhere between 0 and 1. This makes the amount of information they can store nearly endless, but it also opens the calculation up to errors.
These errors are a fundamental problem with quantum computing and the reason the technology isn't widespread today. Everyone involved in the quantum computing arms race is attempting to solve this problem, and each company has a unique approach.
One way IonQ reduces errors is by using all-to-all connectivity. By having each qubit connected to the other in the system, the interaction between the qubits reduces errors. IonQ has achieved 99.9% gate fidelity, which measures how accurate a calculation is. They've also produced an easily scalable architecture that can be run at room temperature, making it far easier to deploy than some solutions.
Although IonQ is still far from winning the quantum computing race, it has an excellent head start.
But where will IonQ be in five years?
IonQ has bold predictions about where it will be in five years
IonQ is already starting to sell some of its quantum computing systems, with five units already being sold. They're launching their new Tempo system in 2025, which they believe will provide commercial value to certain clients. In 2026, they believe they can produce a quantum computer that will provide wide-scale value to many clients.
Although IonQ is unprofitable, its massive $697 million cash balance (as of the end of Q1) is helping to bridge the gap until it turns a profit.
But when will that be? CEO Peter Chapman believes that it will occur by 2030. He also expects to generate $1 billion in sales by then, which would be outstanding growth in just five years.
IONQ Revenue (TTM) data by YCharts
Most quantum computing companies point to 2030 as the start date for widespread quantum computing use, with even broader use expanding rapidly in the following years. By 2035, IonQ expects an $87 billion quantum computing market. If IonQ's products capture just 10% of this potential market, it will be an outstanding investment.
However, if IonQ loses the AI arms race to another competitor, its stock will likely fall to $0. This is an unfortunate reality when investing in a quantum computing start-up, and it's a risk that investors must keep in mind.
IonQ could be a massive winner if everything works out in its favor. If it doesn't, the stock will become nearly worthless. With this kind of all-or-nothing investment possibility, IonQ investors should keep their position sizes relatively small. That way, if the stock goes to $0, you're not significantly affected. But if IonQ wins the race and explodes higher, you can add to your position along the way and own a huge winner.
