It's been a tough year for Lucid Group (LCID 5.26%). Shares are down roughly 30% in value since 2025 began. But there are two reasons for hope. In fact, if there are positive updates on these two catalysts when the company releases its next earnings report in August, right now could prove to be a wonderful buying opportunity for this beaten-down electric car stock.
NASDAQ: LCID
Key Data Points
Lucid's biggest growth catalyst ever could be on the way
Tesla was an impressive business even when it had only a few luxury vehicles in its lineup. But it wasn't until the release of more affordable models like the Model 3 and Model Y that growth really took off. Need proof? As of last quarter, these two EV models account for more than 90% of Tesla's vehicle sales. Most EV makers are trying to get more affordable models to market in order to replicate Tesla's success. Rivian, for example, is hoping to release three new vehicles priced under $50,000 apiece beginning in early 2026.
Lucid appears a little behind in terms of getting a more affordable model to market. As of the latest management update, the target to begin production of its new affordable vehicle lineup won't begin until late 2026. In all, three new mid-sized vehicles are expected to be revealed, all priced under $50,000. This would, for the first time, make Lucid's EVs affordable by the masses, creating tens of millions of new potential buyers.
Thus far, Lucid's management team has been very optimistic about the sales potential for these vehicles. "I was just down in the design studio, and I can tell you the vehicles look amazing. I think customers are going to love them, and I can't wait to show them to you," current CEO Marc Winterhoff said last quarter. "I don't want to reveal too much, but we are currently planning to unveil them late this year or early next year." Former CEO Peter Rawlinson called its mass market vehicles a "landmark product" that will finally allow the company to "compete directly with Tesla."
There's a long list of things that need to happen before all of this becomes a reality. Lucid likely needs to raise additional capital to further scale up its manufacturing capabilities. And as of this writing, we still don't even know what these new models will look like. But any positive updates in August could give the stock a much-needed bump.
Image source: Getty Images.
This growth factor could surprise the market
Lucid's growth journey won't just be about future models. Earlier this year, it released its Gravity SUV platform, allowing it to tap into one of the largest and fastest-growing segments of the passenger vehicle market. While the initial rollout was interrupted by software glitches, the vehicle seems to be attracting both Lucid loyalists and those that have never purchased an EV from the company. "Three-quarters of orders are coming from customers new to the Lucid brand," Lucid's CEO revealed last quarter.
Analysts expect big things from Lucid in 2025 and 2026 thanks to ramping Gravity SUV sales. Sales are expected to grow 73% this year, with another 96% jump expected in 2026. Nearly all of this growth is predicted to come from Gravity sales momentum.
On paper, the Gravity is an exciting vehicle to watch. Its most direct competitor is likely Tesla's Model X. Tesla sells roughly 4,000 Model X vehicles per quarter. Lucid, meanwhile, sold only 50 Gravity vehicles last quarter. There's clearly plenty of room to grow. If sales outpace analyst expectations, expect shares to react favorably.
Of course, investors should keep a long-term view on Lucid stock. Many major catalysts -- especially the release of new mass market vehicles -- will take many years to play out. But there's plenty of reason for optimism if you think the company will exceed expectations when it comes to new model updates and Gravity sales growth.
