I don't know for sure. That's the answer to many questions I'm asked. It's definitely the answer to where Amazon (AMZN -0.80%) stock will be in five years.
However, I think I have a pretty good overall take on where Amazon stock will be in 2030. If I'm right, the outlook looks highly encouraging for Amazon shareholders.
Image source: Getty Images.
Up, up, and away
I'll be quite surprised if Amazon's share price isn't significantly higher five years from now. Are we talking about a market cap of $3 trillion? $4 trillion? Even $5 trillion? Maybe, maybe, and maybe.
Going back to Amazon's initial public offering in May 1997, there have only been two five-year periods during which the stock didn't deliver strong gains. Both occurred during the dot-com bubble burst in the early 21st century. In most of the other five-year periods in Amazon's history, its share price at least doubled and often skyrocketed threefold or more.
As the mutual fund disclosures say, "Past performance isn't necessarily indicative of future results." That's true with Amazon (and any other stock, for that matter). In some ways, it gets increasingly difficult for companies like Amazon to extend their successful track records. Delivering robust growth is harder when your market cap is $2.3 trillion than when it's $100 billion.
However, I'm reasonably confident predicting that Amazon will be bigger five years from now. Why? The same culture that was largely responsible for the company's success over the last nearly three decades is still in place today.
Amazon's growth drivers
I'll go beyond culture as a reason Amazon should grow significantly, though. There are five specific reasons I think Amazon stock will perform well over the next five years.
First, I suspect we've only seen the tip of the iceberg of how artificial intelligence (AI) will transform the world. I expect the second half of this decade will be filled with one AI advance after another. Amazon will probably be one of the companies achieving those advances. And it will almost certainly be a big beneficiary of AI progress, with Amazon Web Services (AWS) ranking as the world's largest cloud services provider.
Second, there's more room for Amazon to grow in its core e-commerce business than meets the eye. Sure, e-commerce is no longer new -- and Amazon is already the 800-pound gorilla in the market. However, CEO Andy Jassy hit the nail on the head in Amazon's October 2024 quarterly update when he pointed out that his company owned only around 1% of the global retail market. I think Jassy was also correct that a lot more retail will be done online in the next 10 to 20 years than is done now.
Third, Amazon is steadily becoming an advertising behemoth. Advertising services revenue soared 19% year over year in the first quarter of 2025, the fastest growth rate of any of Amazon's businesses (including AWS).
Fourth, Amazon hasn't stopped looking for new markets to conquer. As a case in point, the company recently launched its first Project Kuiper satellites and plans to start offering satellite internet service to customers later this year.
Fifth, Amazon's earnings should grow faster than its revenue (and I expect strong revenue growth). Management has been laser-focused on improving profitability, and those efforts are paying off. I think this trend will continue. As earnings go, so goes a stock price over the long run.
A shaky prediction
I'd hate to disappoint anyone who was hoping for a prediction about what Amazon's share price and market cap would be five years from now. Here it is: I predict Amazon's share price and market cap will roughly double by 2030 to around $430 (assuming no stock splits) and over $4.5 trillion, respectively.
Keep in mind that this is a shaky prediction. The economy could falter. Other companies could outinnovate Amazon. A host of other wild cards could get in the way of my optimistic outlook becoming reality. As I said at the outset, I don't know for sure. No one does. One thing I do know for sure, though, is that I wouldn't bet against Amazon.
