A lot of attention deservedly goes to the ongoing artificial intelligence (AI) boom. But investors can't forget another important innovation in the past decade or so, which is the rise of cryptocurrencies and blockchain networks. Love the industry or hate it, the market is valued at $3.3 trillion. So, there's certainly demand.
However, critics will point to how much speculation characterizes the crypto industry. Dogecoin (DOGE 1.82%) might be the main culprit of this frenzy. The dog-inspired meme token was originally created as a joke. But now it's the ninth-most valuable crypto, worth $24 billion.
In the past 10 years, Dogecoin's price has surged 82,140% higher, despite unnerving bouts of volatility. As of June 26, it trades 78% below its peak from May 2021. Can this token rise 525% to reach $1 in 10 years?
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Unpredictable price swings
Casinos are popular partly because of the thrill they provide to gamblers. I suppose the same behavioral aspect can apply to Dogecoin.
The token experiences wild price movements. For instance, it absolutely skyrocketed in November through the first week of December. But it's been a disappointment in 2025. Trying to time the ups and downs is fun for certain market participants.
But this highlights the unpredictable nature of Dogecoin. There are really no fundamental reasons for why the price bounces around like it does. Instead, excitement on social media can control the narrative. And public endorsements by Elon Musk can also work wonders for the token's price.
This enthusiasm can rapidly fade away, though. This makes it all the more difficult to trust Dogecoin as a long-term investment.
The other issue that Dogecoin faces, particularly when it comes to increasing in price, is that there is not a supply cap. As of June 26, there are 150 billion DOGE tokens in circulation. Thanks to its proof-of-work consensus system, 5 billion new tokens are created every year. A rising supply base simply means demand has more catching up to do for the price to go up over time. That's a tough setup.
Pending a major catalyst
Dogecoin might have limited real-world use cases. However, it might be getting a major stamp of approval from the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). Multiple spot Dogecoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) are waiting for the go-ahead. This could bring in lots of capital.
This is exactly what happened with Bitcoin. Since the SEC finally approved spot Bitcoin ETFs on January 10, 2024, the price of the world's leading cryptocurrency is up 133%. These ETFs have amassed tens of billions of dollars in assets under management.
I am confident the Dogecoin ETFs, if approved, won't come anywhere close to Bitcoin's success. But there is certainly upside if this happens, because the SEC would essentially be publicly portraying that Dogecoin is a legitimate financial instrument -- a development I'm sure the vast majority of observers never thought would happen.
Don't expect a 525% rise by 2035
Dogecoin's price is currently $0.16. It would need to increase by 525%, or 20% on an annualized basis, to reach $1 by 2035. I don't think this bullish outcome will occur.
First off, competition is stiff. Investors have plenty of other choices when it comes to meme tokens. If speculation is your thing, there are other, younger cryptos that might be more volatile to trade with.
There are also safer bets such as Bitcoin. The financial services ecosystem that supports Bitcoin continues to expand. This crypto has a hard supply cap of 21 million. And it has deep liquidity and a powerful network effect that Dogecoin can only dream about.
In the past three years, Bitcoin's 398% gain dominates Dogecoin's 140% rise. I believe this trend will continue over the next decade and beyond. Therefore, those expecting the dog token to get to $1 in 10 years, or ever, should temper their expectations.
