If you had invested $10,000 in Rigetti Computing (RGTI -5.91%) one year ago and held on for the wild ride, you'd have a whopping $162,000 right now. That's the kind of return that can make a huge financial impact for any investor.
But one year is not much when you're investing, and what a stock has done in the past doesn't mean much. What really matters is what it will do in the future. Could buying Rigetti Computing stock set you up for life?
The easy answer
That question has an easy answer: Of course, buying Rigetti Computing stock could set you up for life. It's theoretically possible for any stock to be a financial game changer. I'd argue, though, that Rigetti has a better chance than many stocks.
For one thing, Rigetti is still small. The company's market cap currently hovers around $5.4 billion. Rigetti wouldn't have to approach the size of the largest tech stocks to generate ginormous returns.
The company also operates in a hot new area with huge growth prospects. You don't have to understand the details of quantum computing to recognize that its potential is massive. Large-scale quantum computers could revolutionize artificial intelligence (AI), cryptography, drug discovery, financial modeling, materials science, supply chain optimization, and more.
Importantly, Rigetti is also a leader in this promising technology. It recently announced a breakthrough in cutting the 2-qubit gate error rate in half for its 36-qubit quantum computer. Why is this important? Quantum gates are used to manipulate qubits (the basic unit of information in quantum computing). Two-qubit gates involve pairs of qubits and are critical for quantum computers to handle complicated calculations. But they can have lots of errors. Rigetti's error rate reduction is a key prerequisite to building large-scale quantum computers.
How Rigetti could make you a fortune
Let's dive into the specifics of how buying Rigetti Computing stock could make you a fortune. Three steps must be successfully executed.
First, you'd need to invest a significant amount of money in Rigetti. The exact amount required depends on the level of growth the stock generates and how much money will set you up for life (which can vary from one person to another).
Second, quantum computing must deliver on its potential. Boston Consulting Group (BCG) predicts that there will be a $90 billion to $170 billion market for quantum computing hardware and software by 2040. McKinsey thinks the quantum computing market could reach $198 billion by then. The closer the actual market gets to the high end of these estimates, the more likely it will be that an investment in Rigetti could make you a ton of money.
Third, Rigetti Computing has to be one of the top players in the quantum computing industry when it hits its stride. Are there reasons for optimism on this front? Yep. For one thing, Rigetti's superconducting approach to quantum computing could support higher numbers of qubits than competing approaches. The company's belief that its technology is superior is also bolstered by the fact that it has the only multichip quantum computer in the industry.
Image source: Getty Images.
Reality check
Before you invest heavily in Rigetti Computing and wait for your life-changing fortune, a reality check is in order. It could take longer for quantum computers to become as error-free and scalable as they need to be than industry observers such as BCG and McKinsey predict. That could be especially problematic for companies such as Rigetti, which continues to burn through cash.
Rigetti also faces stiff competition. Other companies pursuing the superconducting modality in quantum computing include Google parent Alphabet, Amazon, Fujitsu, and IBM. Microsoft is another tech giant investing heavily in quantum computing but with a twist: It developed a "topoconductor" material that combines semiconductor and superconductor properties.
It's even possible that Rigetti is a big winner over the next decade and beyond, but not big enough to set you up for life. For example, let's suppose you invest $10,000 and the stock skyrockets 20x higher. You'd have $200,000. That's a nice chunk of money. However, it wouldn't be enough for most people to coast the rest of their lives.
The bottom line is that it's possible that buying Rigetti Computing stock will set you up for life. But is it probable that it will do so? Likely not, although it could nonetheless generate nice returns for patient investors willing to take on significant risk.
