Palantir Technologies (PLTR -0.52%) is a polarizing name. For years, critics dismissed it as an overhyped defense contractor disguised as a tech firm. However, the narrative shifted lately.
The company is experiencing rapid growth in commercial markets. Its new artificial intelligence (AI) platform is gaining traction and is now profitable. Shares surged 484% in the past year (as of writing), making it one of the largest companies globally, with a $374 billion market capitalization.
Investors now face a big question: Could this new phase of Palantir's evolution eventually make it worth $1 trillion?
Let's break it down.
Image source: Getty Images.
Where does Palantir stand today?
Palantir operates in two primary segments: government and commercial. For most of its history, the company was best known for its work with U.S. defense and intelligence agencies -- a sticky business, but one that didn't scale easily.
That's changing. Palantir's Artificial Intelligence Platform (AIP) is emerging as a breakout commercial product. Unlike earlier tools that required significant engineering support from Palantir, AIP is modular, configurable, and deployable in days, not months. Companies can use it to integrate large language models (LLMs) with internal data while maintaining strict governance and security.
To accelerate adoption, Palantir launched AIP Bootcamps -- short, high-intensity onboarding programs that enable potential clients to test-drive the platform using their own data. It's a clever growth hack that reduces friction and demonstrates to customers how AI can enhance their operations.
Unsurprisingly, commercial revenue has been scaling nicely in recent quarters. In the first quarter, which ended March 31, 2025, U.S. commercial revenue surged 71% year over year, far surpassing groupwide revenue growth of 39%. Even Palantir's "boring" government business is getting an enormous boost thanks to the increase in AI adoption in the public sector, with U.S. government revenue growing 45% year over year in the same quarter.
It's early days, but AI is a game-changer for Palantir.
How much profit is needed to justify a trillion-dollar market cap?
Palantir is currently valued at around $375 billion, so $1 trillion is about 3 times the current market capitalization. Still, to justify that valuation over time, Palantir must back it up with sustainable earnings.
Let's assume the market assigns Palantir a generous valuation in the future -- say, a 25 times price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio, similar to other high-quality software companies with durable growth. That would imply the company needs to generate roughly $40 billion in annual net income. Even at a more aggressive 30x multiple, Palantir would still need around $33 billion in net profit.
For perspective, Palantir reported an adjusted net income of $334 million in the first quarter of 2025, equivalent to $1.3 billion annualized. To reach $33 billion, net income must grow by over 25 times. For context, that's more profit than Adobe or Salesforce generate in today's market, and they've been building commercial software-as-a-service (SaaS) businesses for decades.
In other words, reaching the trillion-dollar mark will require an enormous leap in revenue, margin, and scale, placing Palantir among the largest tech companies, such as Microsoft or Alphabet.
What needs to happen from here
Palantir might have a long growth runway, but the path to $1 trillion is very challenging. Here's what the company must do next to have a shot at reaching that goal.
1. Scale its commercial business globally
The government business is solid but limited. To become a dominant global software company, Palantir must drive widespread commercial adoption of AIP. That means winning Fortune 500 customers, expanding internationally, and proving that AIP is a mission-critical layer of the modern enterprise stack, including building an ecosystem with highly supportive partners.
2. Defend its moat in a competitive AI landscape
As enterprise AI heats up, every major cloud and data platform wants a piece of the action. Palantir's differentiation lies in secure deployment, strong data governance, and operational use cases. It must continue to invest in those strengths. Winning in this space means staying ahead not just in tech but also in trust.
3. Expand margins with scale
While Palantir is now profitable, its current operating margin remains modest compared to that of top-tier software companies. For perspective, the generally accepted accounting principles (GAAP) net income margin was 16% in 2024. If AIP succeeds in replacing manual customization with out-of-the-box deployment, margins are expected to rise over time due to operating leverage. In other words, net profit must grow even faster than revenue!
What does this mean for investors?
On one level, Palantir is at a pivotal moment. With AIP gaining traction, commercial growth accelerating, and government demand rising, it has plenty of ingredients for growth.
However, to justify a $1 trillion valuation, it must become one of the most profitable software companies on the planet. That means expanding globally, defending its competitive edge in enterprise AI, and scaling margins dramatically.
And with its steep valuation, it will be a risky investment for most investors to participate in this ride.
