Crypto bull markets are often much like rush hour traffic, where everyone wants to get somewhere, but the cars in one lane often pull ahead in a given stretch of road.
Right now, two of the faster lanes belong to Ethereum (ETH 2.17%) and XRP (XRP 2.75%). One question that's bugging investors is which of the pair is more likely to double in value the soonest. Both coins enjoy swelling liquidity and real world adoption, yet bull markets rarely rewards every contestant equally. Let's examine their prospects.
CRYPTO: ETH
Key Data Points
Ethereum's turnaround could ignite a quicker surge
Ethereum is priced at more than $3,700 right now, so a doubling lands at about $7,400 , which is territory it last visited in early 2022.
New exchange-traded funds (ETFs) that enable institutional investors to pour their capital into the coin are already paving the road to new highs. U.S.-based funds had inflows of more than $2 billion during the week ended July 19, including a dramatic single-day haul of $727 million on July 16. Those flows constrain the coin's float available for public trading, so they support demand, and higher prices too.
Another key factor is that at least one of the chain's most annoying bugbears, namely its unreasonably high gas (user) fees, is (finally) resolving.
Image source: Getty Images.
Since the Dencun upgrade to the chain 16 months ago, and the Pectra upgrade this year, average gas costs cratered by roughly 95%, dropping a typical swap to $0.39 from tens of dollars during high-traffic periods. That reduction has lured liquidity back to the decentralized finance (DeFi) segment, both via decentralized exchanges (DEXes) and Layer-2 (L2) rollups, helping to revive the chain's application revenue, and, more importantly, its narrative.
Meanwhile, the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) could give the OK to staking rewards for spot Ethereum ETFs before the end of the year. That would give institutional buyers a 4% to 6% staking "dividend" on top of price exposure, which would likely attract a lot more capital and pump the coin's price.
Importantly, momentum is already scorching with this coin. Ethereum has more than doubled since its late-April trough, rallying roughly 105% in just three months (as of July 25). That head start makes it the odds-on favorite in any doubling contest.
Overall, the route to a quick two-bagger looks fairly clear here.
CRYPTO: XRP
Key Data Points
XRP's playbook is different, and slower
As of July 25, XRP sells for about $3.20, so doubling means reaching $6.40, a level it has never reached before.
While a spot XRP ETF could indeed trigger a torrent of buying, the SEC delayed a filing seeking to issue such an asset again this week, leaving timing uncertain. Therefore, it can't count on the same scale of inflows in the near term as Ethereum.
But, over the longer term, its position is quite bullish.
Where XRP shines is acting as financial plumbing with the help of Ripple, the company that issues it. Ripple's Payments suite now has access to more than 90 markets. It has cleared more than $70 billion in volume since its inception, all settled using XRP in the backend, and stablecoins hosted on the XRP Ledger (XRPL).
Ripple's $1.25 billion purchase of the prime broker Hidden Road deepens XRP's claim to being a financial tool, as it gave 300 institutional clients a regulatory-compliant on-ramp that settles with XRP. As those clients tap the lending services that Ripple provides using XRP, and as they park more of their real-world assets (RWAs) on the chain to gain speed and efficiency, there will be an escalating demand for the coin, and the price is very likely to continue trending higher over time.
However, institutions lay track slowly. Compliance checks and integrating back-end technology unfold over quarters, not weeks. Without an ETF to turn on a firehose of capital inflows, XRP's catalyst calendar isn't very precise.
Which will double first?
Assuming current macroeconomic and liquidity conditions persist, Ethereum looks to be more likely to reach the finish line first, though XRP could still beat it.
Record ETF inflows, a fresh staking-yield narrative, and a hot three-month streak all considerably shorten Ethereum's path to a 100% gain. XRP's institutional strategy is compelling, and a future ETF approval could unleash a similar wave of buying power. But until that catalyst is realized, its timetable is hazier, and gains derived from institutional onboarding will be piecemeal rather than all at once.
With all that said, both coins can be rewarding long-term holdings, so it could be a decent idea to buy and hold both.
