In 2025, XRP (XRP -2.74%) has come tantalizingly close to hitting a new all-time high of $4 on two occasions. Heading into Inauguration Day, XRP soared in value and peaked at about $3.40. Then, after a long, disastrous slide, XRP suddenly regained momentum and hit a new 52-week high of $3.65 on July 17.
But now XRP is back down to a price of about $3. To hit a price of $4 by 2026, XRP will need to rally by 33% or more. Is that possible? Let's do the math.
As Bitcoin goes, so goes XRP
If history is any guide, the broader crypto market will move higher in the second half of 2025 only if Bitcoin (BTC -1.57%) moves higher. And right now, Bitcoin is having tremendous difficulty holding on to the $120,000 price level.
That's despite constant cheerleading from Wall Street analysts, who are convinced that Bitcoin will hit $200,000 by the end of the year. Investment firm Bernstein has doubled and even tripled down on its $200,000 forecast. Standard Chartered has doubled down on its $200,000 price forecast, as well. And Citigroup (C -0.89%) recently chimed in with a price forecast of $199,000.
So, let's do some quick back-of-the-envelope math. If Bitcoin moves from its current price of $114,000 to $200,000, it's a virtual lock that XRP can hit $4. A move from $114,000 to $200,000 is a gain of about 75%, and XRP needs to post a gain of only 33% to hit $4.
Image source: Getty Images.
Here, it's useful to look at cryptocurrency correlations. In other words, how closely is the price of XRP correlated with the price of Bitcoin? According to the Correlations Matrix from DeFiLlama, the 1-year correlation between XRP and Bitcoin is 0.88, and the 1-month correlation is 0.86. Both over the short term and long term, then, XRP is highly correlated with Bitcoin. So, it's safe to say that as Bitcoin goes, so goes XRP.
The new XRP catalyst that could change everything
Every few months, it seems the XRP investor community rallies behind a new catalyst that is supposed to send XRP higher. Last year, it was the election of a pro-crypto president. Then, there was the promise of regulatory and legal clarity, as the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) moved to drop its long-standing case against Ripple, the company behind the XRP token. Then, there was the suggestion that XRP might be added to the U.S. government's crypto strategic reserve. Then, it was the imminent launch of a new spot XRP exchange-traded fund (ETF).
It's safe to say that all these catalysts have now been priced into XRP. That's what enabled XRP to soar from $0.50 in November 2024 to its current price of about $3. So, the search is now on for a new catalyst capable of sending XRP to $4 or higher.
One new catalyst that could have staying power is the recent adoption of XRP as a treasury asset by a growing list of companies. These companies are reinventing themselves as crypto treasury companies in the mold of Strategy (MSTR -3.76%), the Bitcoin treasury company formerly known as MicroStrategy. Treasury companies raise capital to buy crypto and hold it on their balance sheets.
The latest speculation is that Ripple is going to go all-in on the XRP treasury company model. Theoretically, if Ripple becomes the Strategy of XRP, that might create enough buying pressure to force XRP higher.
What do the prediction markets think?
According to the Kalshi prediction market, XRP has a 42% chance of hitting $4 by 2026. In other words, it's basically a coin flip. Nearly half the market thinks XRP will hit $4, and the other half doesn't.
Interestingly, the Kalshi prediction market also thinks XRP has a 32% chance of hitting $5 by 2026. That lines up with a recent price prediction from Standard Chartered, which believes XRP is going to $5.50 this year.
Should you buy XRP?
At the end of the day, XRP's ability to hit a price of $4 may come down to President Donald Trump's new tariffs. Heading into August, it looked like XRP was finally gaining some price momentum. But then came the phasing in of the Trump tariffs on Aug. 1, and now XRP is headed back down as part of a broader market sell-off.
Until there is more clarity on tariffs and their potential impact on the U.S. economy, it's hard to see XRP climbing substantially higher, no matter how many new catalysts it may have. For that reason, I'm putting my faith in Bitcoin and not XRP. If there's any cryptocurrency that can shake off the tariff malaise, it's Bitcoin.
