Five years can be a lifetime in the tech sector. That's only more true in the unpredictable world of cryptocurrencies. And you know what they say about the best laid plans of mice and men -- there will always be surprises.
So I can't tell you exactly how Polkadot (DOT +0.23%) will work out over the next five years. The cryptocurrency's backing group does have long-term plans, but you just never know. However, I can point you in the right general direction.
Here's what I expect from Polkadot in the next few years. I'm more interested in the project itself than in coin prices, so let's start there.
Image source: Polkadot.
What are Polkadot and Web3 waiting for?
As the official cryptocurrency of the Web3 Foundation, Polkadot's future rests on the progress of that ambitious project. Web3 technologies have been around for more than a decade, aiming to replace the current social media focus with a more personal online experience. Decentralized computing and blockchain-based data storage are time-tested ideas by now.
I keep expecting Web3 to gain traction, but something is still missing. It's kind of like the sea change from cable TV and DVDs to online video-streaming services. The revolution was indeed unstoppable; it just took a few years longer than I thought at first.
That being said, several big Web3 ideas are on the move right now. Decentralized finance apps look useful in this shifting economy. Mobile games like Mythical Games' FIFA Rivals keep track of each player's team data in a blockchain ledger. The cryptocurrency ingredients in these Web3 recipes aren't always highlighted as a user-friendly benefit. Instead, developers are sweeping their Web3 technologies under the rug to focus on a pleasant user experience instead. With Polkadot and its app-building platform, that's not hard to do.
Polkadot is already a very fast and powerful app-building framework. The ongoing upgrade to Polkadot 2.0 will boost the computing speeds again, while also making Polkadot compatible with pretty much any programming language you prefer. The distributed network of Polkadot nodes will act like a full-fledged virtual machine, making general-purpose cloud computing available right on the blockchain.
If that sounds pointless, you may not have considered the upside of Polkadot's high-quality data security and the resulting cloud computing system's potential muscle. The Web3 Foundation describes Polkadot 2.0 as "a supercomputer on the blockchain." The platform is almost ready to run, waiting for a few final tweaks in the second half of 2025 or early 2026.
More upgrades, more surprises
Here's the thing. Polkadot keeps improving its Web3 development systems. Polkadot 2.0 will be leaps and bounds ahead of the current version, and I expect the back-end upgrades to continue from there.
The Polkadot 3.0 or perhaps 4.0 in 2030 could very well make the current system look like an old toy. That's not even an insult, by the way. You have to walk before you run, and the Polkadot group is learning tons of valuable lessons through their planning and technical upgrade processes. True to the Web3 ideals, Polkadot is governed by a decentralized community. Everything from next-version improvements to project budgets must be approved by a community vote, making Polkadot's long-term plans more changeable than other cryptocurrencies.
So the Polkadot of 2030 may look very different from the current and upcoming versions. But the whole project keeps pushing the boundaries of Web3 computing, one vote at a time.
CRYPTO: DOT
Key Data Points
Predicting Polkadot's price progression
Currently trading at $3.69 per coin, Polkadot has been a volatile asset recently. Coin prices have bounced between $3.15 and $11.50 in the last two years, and the recent trend has been mostly negative.
However, many market watchers are looking for a turnaround fairly soon. The Polkadot 2.0 upgrades play an important part here, next to growing real-world use of Web3 concepts. The first big-ticket killer apps could show up in apps stores any day now -- or maybe they already did, and just haven't conquered the app installation charts quite yet.
As such, crowd-polling sites like Benzinga and Changelly expect Polkadot prices to start climbing by the end of this year. Double-digit prices look reasonable long before 2030, and their multi-decade projections stretch into hundreds of dollars.
I can't say how these consensus targets were constructed, and I already talked about long-term plans going awry. And inflation will probably undermine these straight-up returns to some degree, especially in the really long-term estimates.
Still, I do agree that Polkadot seems ready to take off in 2025 or 2026. I think the time for Web3 has come.
Today's prices, well below $4, should feel quaintly affordable in five years. I think you'll be kicking yourself later if you don't grab a couple of affordable coins in this early stage.
