There's no denying it. Powerball's estimated $1.3 million jackpot for Wednesday's drawing is wildly tempting. Even though the cash value is considerably lower (then take out another 40% or so for taxes), when all is said and done, a winning $2 ticket could still be worth more than a half of a billion dollars. That would be a 12.8-billion-percent return on somebody's investment, assuming they only purchased one ticket. Even if they bought more than one ticket, though, that's still not a bad return.
Problem? There's only a 1-in-292-million chance of winning the jackpot. It's also possible there could be more than one winner who would split this jackpot evenly between them.
Still, kudos to anyone with the guts to make a bet that is vastly more likely to result in a 100% loss... even if that loss is negligible.
If you're willing to take on this sort of risk, though, why not take a lower-risk, higher-odds bet with a limited degree of downside in exchange for a respectably sized, reliable upside? In other words, why not buy stocks? More specifically right now, why not take a shot on Archer Aviation (ACHR 2.40%) while it's still trading at a discount?
Here's why you might want to do just that.
What's Archer Aviation?
If you've never heard of it, Archer is a start-up company developing battery-powered small aircraft that will ultimately be used as flying taxis.
It's not nearly as wild an idea as it might sound at first blush. After all, the world has made some serious strides in recent years in terms of developing lighter-yet-stronger materials, while the electric vehicle industry has mainstreamed relatively light and energy-dense lithium-based batteries. With these two key advantages in hand, engineers have been less constrained in their aircraft designs.
At Archer, the end result of their efforts has been a five-passenger aircraft with eight powerful pivoting electric motors that allow it to take off and land vertically (like a helicopter), but fly horizontally at a fast clip with its lift provided by its wings (like an airplane).
Image source: Archer Aviation.
It's no mere concept, either. Two prototypes of the company's Midnight aircraft have already made hundreds of test flights each. Six more such aircraft are under construction, and three of them are near completion.
Although the Midnight has not yet been fully certified for commercial use by the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA), it has won several of the initial certifications required to test-fly a new aircraft design in order to secure its next stage of certifications.
The future looks bright
So where's this all going? As was noted, the ultimate goal is for Archer's eVTOL (electric vertical takeoff and landing) aircraft to form the backbone of air taxi services.
That's not quite as wild a notion as it might sound on the surface, either. Oh, at one time it would have been, to be sure. However, as Archer's Midnight and a similar aircraft made by rival Joby Aviation (JOBY 0.53%) continue to prove themselves, experts increasingly expect to see these new kinds of flexible flying vehicles become commercially viable.
In fact, Archer has already forged a partnership with airline United to establish an air taxi service in and around New York City. Whereas a car trip between downtown Manhattan and any of its nearby airports might take an hour or more through the metropolitan area's congested streets, Archer's aircraft could manage that point-to-point trip in about 10 minutes at an expected cost somewhere in the neighborhood of $50 to $100 per passenger.
It's not just downtown New York, though. Archer's initial designs for a hybrid heliport in the United Arab Emirates have been approved by that nation's General Civil Aviation Agency, with test flights in Abu Dhabi beginning just a few weeks ago. Archer Aviation has also been named the official air taxi service provider for the 2028 Summer Olympics scheduled to take place in Los Angeles. Given that all of these deals have been inked without the customers waiting for the Midnight to earn FAA certification, clearly there's some confidence in the aircraft.
The industry's catching a relatively new tailwind too. In June, President Donald Trump signed an executive order requiring the secretary of transportation to create an "eVTOL [electric vertical takeoff and landing] Integration Pilot Program (eIPP) as an extension of the BEYOND program to accelerate the deployment of safe and lawful eVTOL operations in the United States." This is just one of the reasons Precedence Research expects the United States to lead a worldwide flying taxi business that it forecasts will grow at an average annual rate of nearly 29% between now and 2034.
In that context, Archer's goal of building a manufacturing facility capable of producing 650 eVTOLs a year by 2030 doesn't seem unreasonable at all.
The risk matches the potential reward
There are still plenty of risks for this company. Chief among them is that the Midnight's FAA approval isn't an absolute foregone conclusion, even if the market is acting as if it is. And even if the FAA ends up approving it (which, realistically speaking, seems more likely than not), there's no assurance that consumers will embrace battery-powered flying taxis even if they do offer reasonably affordable and rapid trips, just as there's no assurance the company will be able to secure all the landing zones it needs to establish full footprints in cities where it wants to operate. And, even if it does, there's no guarantee that Archer can do all of this profitably.
There's a chance, though, that each of these matters will work out as well as hoped. And the odds of everything working out as hoped for Archer are millions of times better than your odds of winning the lottery are, though the potential payoff for investors isn't nearly as big.
Speaking of payoffs, for what it's worth, the analyst community says Archer Aviation stock is undervalued right now. The current one-year consensus target of $12.39 is more than 30% above the stock's present price, in fact. The majority of the analysts covering the company rate Archer a strong buy right now, as well. That's not a bad way to start out any new speculative trade.
