Just a short while ago, Opendoor (OPEN -0.50%) was on the verge of being delisted by the Nasdaq stock exchange. It was planning on conducting a reverse stock split to avoid that fate. And then everything changed, including Kaz Nejatian joining the company as the new CEO.
But have things really changed enough yet?
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A major decline and a big uptick for Opendoor's stock
If you look at the entire price history of Opendoor's stock, it is currently down by around 75% from its all-time high. That all-time high came shortly after it went public, via a merger with a special purpose acquisition corporation (SPAC) in 2020. Back then, SPACs, which are companies that raise money so they can go out and buy a business, were all the rage and such deals were viewed very favorably by investors.
Then the reality set in that Opendoor was a money-losing startup. The stock started its long decline, eventually losing almost all of its value as it fell into penny stock land. The price remained so low for so long that the Nasdaq exchange threatened to delist Opendoor's stock. That's a terrible thing for a business, as it makes it much harder to access the capital markets for cash. Opendoor did what many companies do in such a situation -- it planned to enact a reverse stock split. Reverse stock splits are usually not a good sign for a business.
And that was about the time that an activist investor started to really crank up the heat on Opendoor. The old CEO departed and a search for a new CEO began, with the stock starting to rise as the process unfolded. When Kaz Nejatian from Shopify was announced as the new CEO of Opendoor, the stock jumped even higher. From its all-time high, Opendoor is now down 75% or so. And over the past three months, the stock is up more than 1,300%.
The problem with Opendoor's rally
There's one small wrinkle in this story that investors shouldn't ignore. Nothing material has changed within Opendoor's business. It is still a money-losing startup. And that's important because it is attempting to create a business around home flipping, which is something that is usually done by small, local investors. It is, basically, an unproven business. Wall Street is treating the stock as if the new CEO will instantly move the income statement from red to black, which seems like an unlikely outcome.
Adding fuel to the fire is the fact that Nejatian's opening salvo on what could be done to improve the business includes the use of artificial intelligence. AI is a buzzword for investors, much like SPAC was a buzzword back in 2020. Excited investors have priced a lot of positive news into Opendoor's stock in a very short period of time. That excitement is already starting to wear off, as the stock has fallen around 20% from the post news frenzy high.
That isn't something you should ignore, since attention spans on Wall Street tend to be rather short. To sustain the price levels following the rally, Opendoor is likely going to have to show quick results. Nejatian's AI plan, however, could take some time to implement. And it would likely come with material upfront costs, notably including the cost of firing current employees and the capital investments needed to shift the workload to AI.
In other words, it seems likely that Opendoor's near-term financial performance as a business could be volatile, if not downright ugly, reading. Unless the new CEO can keep investors excited, which will most likely be driven by ideas and not financial results, the stock could have trouble sustaining its current levels.
At least the reverse stock split is off the table, for now
Money-losing Opendoor is a story stock right now, and the only thing keeping the shares aloft is investor sentiment. It can be very difficult to keep investors interested for a long period of time without constant positive news. Given the overhaul that Kaz Nejatian seems to be planning for the business, it could be hard to keep investors interested in this story for very long. Opendoor is only appropriate for very aggressive investors.
But there is one big positive. After the stock price advance, the new CEO doesn't have to worry about the shares being delisted for a while. If he can't sustain the excitement around the planned Opendoor overhaul, however, it is entirely possible that a reverse stock split could be back on the table at some point in the future.
