Tesla (TSLA -1.41%) investors have been hoping for a return to growth, and the electric-car maker delivered. Third-quarter deliveries were 29% higher than the previous quarter and returned to year-over-year growth. These record quarterly deliveries followed two periods of underwhelming sales in the first half of the year.
The timing of a blowout quarter wasn't random. U.S. buyers were racing to complete purchases before the $7,500 clean-vehicle credit ended for vehicles acquired after Sept. 30, and Tesla's refreshed Model Y helped convert interest into orders. The result was a headline-grabbing surge in the deliveries that refocused attention on the company's growth story.
But can momentum persist in Q4? The next few months will tell us how much of Q3's strength reflected one-time incentives and how much represented underlying demand that can carry into next year.
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An impressive third quarter
Tesla's third-quarter deliveries came in at 497,099, the company said on Thursday. This is up 7% year over year and far higher than Q2 numbers. Production, however, lagged behind, coming in at 447,450 units. That gap reduced inventory and suggests the company's demand exceeded production -- a testament to the company's compelling lineup and a rush to buy vehicles before the $7,500 credit expired.
The surging demand to take advantage of the credit makes perfect sense. Under recently updated IRS guidance, vehicles placed in service after Sept. 30 must have been acquired on or before Sept. 30 to qualify -- meaning shoppers who hadn't locked in by that date lost access to the $7,500 credit. That deadline, therefore, likely concentrated a meaningful number of U.S. deliveries into late September.
Product updates likely helped, too. The "Juniper" refresh of Model Y rolled out in China in January and reached the U.S., Canada, and Europe weeks later, bringing exterior and interior updates that could have nudged fence-sitters to act. For a vehicle that already represents the bulk of Tesla's volume, even modest improvements can move the needle -- particularly when stacked on top of a closing incentive window.
Q4 could be weak, but that's OK
Investors shouldn't assume Q3's pace will continue -- at least not in Q4. With the federal credit no longer available for vehicles acquired after Sept. 30, the most obvious catalyst that pulled buyers forward is gone. Add the production-delivery gap from Q3, and it's reasonable to expect a sequential step-down in fourth-quarter deliveries as production and orders realign.
The long-term picture, however, remains the more important lens. In Tesla's second-quarter update, management said that "first builds of a more affordable model" occurred in June, with volume production planned for the back half of 2025 (so, any day now). The more affordable model, which is rumored to just be a lower-priced Model Y variant, would widen the company's addressable market and could help drive sales higher next year.
Additionally, Tesla's progress with its autonomous ride-sharing network, Robotaxi, could attract attention to its cars and bolster demand, since all Tesla vehicles are built with self-driving capabilities. As of now, the self-driving technology requires supervision from the driver, but as it gets closer to full autonomy with future software updates, it will likely get more attention from consumers and may morph into a substantial catalyst for sales over time.
The market certainly seems to be looking past a potentially weak Q4. As of this writing, Tesla's market capitalization sits around $1.45 trillion against trailing-12-month net income of about $5.9 billion, giving the stock an extraordinarily high price-to-earnings ratio of about 245. While the valuation leaves little room for error, it could prove to be reasonable over the long haul if deliveries reaccelerate alongside growth in software sales and its energy business.
Ultimately, despite an impressive third quarter, Q4 may step back as the rush fades and production catches up, which is worth keeping in mind at today's valuation. The more consequential factors, however, are still ahead: lower-priced vehicles and early autonomy efforts. These growth initiatives could put deliveries and revenue on a firmer upward path next year. For investors, the case rests less on one quarter and more on the trajectory those catalysts can sustain over time.
